We are still a month away from the annual January weaner sales, so it is a little difficult to make any bold statements about how prices might play out this year. We can, however, outline how the market is situated at the moment and what might drive rates in the new year.
The annual run of southern January weaner sales can make or break sellers and set a benchmark for young cattle prices going forward. While mainstream thinking tends to assess the relative success of weaner sales by how they compare to last year and historical levels, we like to look at whether the sales represent value for buyers and sellers.
To measure value, we compare weaner prices to the benchmark Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and look at what sort of money buyers might make out of weaners purchased in January.
Firstly, we look at Victorian weaner steer prices relative to the EYCI. This chart goes back to 2001. When we started collecting this data in 2006, we spent an afternoon in the State Library looking at ‘The Weekly Times’ under microfiche to find weaner sale prices for 2001 to 2005. These days, three clicks gets you the numbers on AuctionsPlus. How times have changed.
The numbers for 2026 are the EYCI and weaner prices from last week. While absolute prices are still some way off the records set in 2022, in terms of the premium to the EYCI, weaners sit at a very strong 22%.
Good November rain and the drive to restock in southern Victoria are no doubt helping drive premiums for southern weaners at the moment. The EYCI has been treading water, with strong supplies coming out of the north where the herd has been building.
The second value measure, the trading margin, also looks relatively healthy. Figure 2 shows the basic trading margin for taking weaners through to export feeders. If southern producers have excess feed, growing cattle out to feeders is potentially a profitable way to use it.
Weaner prices can still change before January. Figure 3 shows the EYCI has moved significantly in January in three of the past five years. Strong rallies in 2021 and 2024 are countered by a fall in 2023. The main driver of January price change is summer rainfall in the north.
The December outlook is highly depressing for those looking for rain, while January is looking more promising.
Note. This trade scenario calculation does not allow for cost such as freight, administrative costs and uses an assumed cost of feed; these will vary between enterprises and should be calculated on a case-by-case basis when considering any trade.
What does it mean?
The rainfall outlook for December suggests the EYCI might continue to slide downwards for the rest of the selling year. Even with the positive sentiment around feed supply in the south at the moment, this could drag weaners lower by the time sales come around. This could all be reversed with early January wet-season rains bringing a stronger EYCI and additional restocker demand.
Key Points
- Southern weaner cattle are currently at strong premiums to the EYCI thanks to a wet November.
- Margins on trading weaners look relatively strong, despite the premium price.
- Upside for January sales hangs on northern wet season rain.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, AuctionsPlus, Nutrien, Mecardo
