Lighter lambs dominated the yardings, which couldn’t drum up excitement from buyers for this week as prices corrected, and heavier trade lambs remain AWOL. Price declines over spring are currently in line with seasonal expectations, but the lambs that are available to be bought aren’t.
Total supply was higher week on week; however, new season lamb throughput to the yards continues to lag behind year-ago levels. Yardings of young lambs since August have been 9% lower than this time last year and 19% lower than the 5-year average for spring flush numbers. Typically, from this week until Christmas, new season young lamb throughput will average over 100,000 head per week. This week’s indicative numbers per MLA saw a 33% decline in numbers week on week to 72k head. Reliable and consistent would not be great words to describe the new season supply this year, and it’s beginning to impact the market.
More lambs and less weight pushed prices lower as all indicators averaged a 59-82¢ decline this week. The double whammy of this week’s market saw increases in light and Merino lambs available. Elevated light lamb supply means prices need to be cheaper for restockers to be interested, given current seasonal conditions. Similarly, processors probably need this current cohort of lambs to be cheaper to sell to Middle Eastern export buyers. The national light lamb indicator dropped 73¢ to 874¢/kg cwt, and the national Merino lamb indicator lost 71¢ to 942¢/kg cwt.
Saleyard reports per the MLA cited softer demand as the big buyers at this time of year patiently wait for weight. Last week’s big yarding likely contributed as well, and with numbers to increase moving forward, buyer interest will soon follow. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 65¢ to 1073¢/kg cwt. Mutton markets didn’t avoid downward momentum either as the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) lost 88¢ to 685¢/kg cwt.
Next week
With current weekly slaughter numbers for lamb 14% lower than this time last year, there is capacity and room for things to ramp up quickly once the lambs with weight arrive, which should support prices at the lower levels (which are still 33% higher YoY.
Restocker interest has been significantly impacted by the lack of spring rainfall and will be dented further as focus shifts to harvest and restoring hay sheds.
The big spring store sales are progressing through the Riverina, and it coincides with rapid spring growth in high rainfall zones further south and east.
Australian sheep and lamb exports increased in September but remained subdued in relation to recent trends. The US took dominant market share for the month,
The sheep and lamb market showed some resilience this week as yardings backed off slightly but remained at their second-highest level since June. Merino lambs
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Weighting on the lambs to change
Next week
With current weekly slaughter numbers for lamb 14% lower than this time last year, there is capacity and room for things to ramp up quickly once the lambs with weight arrive, which should support prices at the lower levels (which are still 33% higher YoY.
Restocker interest has been significantly impacted by the lack of spring rainfall and will be dented further as focus shifts to harvest and restoring hay sheds.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Taking a punt on merino lambs?
The big spring store sales are progressing through the Riverina, and it coincides with rapid spring growth in high rainfall zones further south and east.
Market kicks as quality starts to arrive
The story of supply has been driving the market since Winter, and demand has been reactive. Last week, there was movement at the station when
FTA fuels UK sheepmeat market
Australian sheep and lamb exports increased in September but remained subdued in relation to recent trends. The US took dominant market share for the month,
NSW leads sheep and lamb demand
The sheep and lamb market showed some resilience this week as yardings backed off slightly but remained at their second-highest level since June. Merino lambs
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.