Lighter lambs dominated the yardings, which couldn’t drum up excitement from buyers for this week as prices corrected, and heavier trade lambs remain AWOL. Price declines over spring are currently in line with seasonal expectations, but the lambs that are available to be bought aren’t.
Total supply was higher week on week; however, new season lamb throughput to the yards continues to lag behind year-ago levels. Yardings of young lambs since August have been 9% lower than this time last year and 19% lower than the 5-year average for spring flush numbers. Typically, from this week until Christmas, new season young lamb throughput will average over 100,000 head per week. This week’s indicative numbers per MLA saw a 33% decline in numbers week on week to 72k head. Reliable and consistent would not be great words to describe the new season supply this year, and it’s beginning to impact the market.
More lambs and less weight pushed prices lower as all indicators averaged a 59-82¢ decline this week. The double whammy of this week’s market saw increases in light and Merino lambs available. Elevated light lamb supply means prices need to be cheaper for restockers to be interested, given current seasonal conditions. Similarly, processors probably need this current cohort of lambs to be cheaper to sell to Middle Eastern export buyers. The national light lamb indicator dropped 73¢ to 874¢/kg cwt, and the national Merino lamb indicator lost 71¢ to 942¢/kg cwt.
Saleyard reports per the MLA cited softer demand as the big buyers at this time of year patiently wait for weight. Last week’s big yarding likely contributed as well, and with numbers to increase moving forward, buyer interest will soon follow. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) lost 65¢ to 1073¢/kg cwt. Mutton markets didn’t avoid downward momentum either as the National Mutton Indicator (NMI) lost 88¢ to 685¢/kg cwt.
Next week
With current weekly slaughter numbers for lamb 14% lower than this time last year, there is capacity and room for things to ramp up quickly once the lambs with weight arrive, which should support prices at the lower levels (which are still 33% higher YoY.
Restocker interest has been significantly impacted by the lack of spring rainfall and will be dented further as focus shifts to harvest and restoring hay sheds.
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Weighting on the lambs to change
Next week
With current weekly slaughter numbers for lamb 14% lower than this time last year, there is capacity and room for things to ramp up quickly once the lambs with weight arrive, which should support prices at the lower levels (which are still 33% higher YoY.
Restocker interest has been significantly impacted by the lack of spring rainfall and will be dented further as focus shifts to harvest and restoring hay sheds.
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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