Wheat markets traded a mixed but slightly firmer tone this week. As of 26 September, CBOT wheat closed around US 527c/bu, up on the day. Over the past month, the contract has managed a modest 2.5% gain, though prices remain more than 11% below year-ago levels, underscoring how far the market has retreated from last year’s highs.
The headline story came out of Argentina, where the government moved in dramatic fashion on Monday to suspend export taxes on grains, oilseeds, by-products, and even beef and poultry. The stated aim was to unlock fresh export flows, boost dollar inflows, and stabilise shaky financial markets. The suspension was supposed to last until the end of October, or until exporters declared US$7 billion in sales.
In reality, the policy lasted just two days. Exporters rushed to register sales, hitting the US$7 billion ceiling almost immediately. Soybeans and soybean meal were the biggest beneficiaries, with China reportedly booking 20 bulk cargoes. The move is unlikely to sit well with the US, which has yet to ship a single cargo of soybeans to China this season, an unprecedented development given China was once its largest customer. Wheat and maize also saw a flurry of activity, though soy dominated.
Meanwhile, Black Sea risks are back on the radar. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, striking at both energy and export capacity. This week, a Ukrainian drone targeted the deep-sea port of Novorossiisk, a dual-use site serving as both a naval depot and a key hub for grain and oil shipments. Adding to the tension, the US President delivered a sharp address at the UN, signalling a tougher rhetorical line towards Moscow. Together, these developments injected fresh risk premium into grain markets.
On the demand side, signs are emerging that importers are beginning to re-engage after months on the sidelines. This week Iran is thought to have booked around 2 mmt of wheat, Algeria purchased roughly 600 kmt, and Jordan issued a tender for 120 kmt.
These deals suggest that the recent easing in wheat values has made the market more attractive to traditional buyers, providing some much-needed demand support.
Next week
Wheat markets are balancing between bearish fundamentals, large global supplies and strong competition from the Black Sea, versus bullish geopolitical risk and returning importer demand. Prices look to be stabilising for now.
2026 has opened with a familiar driver dominating the headlines: geopolitics. Forget Russia, Venezuela or Greenland, developments in Iran arguably carry far greater implications for
With little fresh direction, wheat prices have continued to follow the path of least resistance, grinding lower. After almost four years of entrenched conflict in
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Wheat prices stabilise as import demand emerges
The headline story came out of Argentina, where the government moved in dramatic fashion on Monday to suspend export taxes on grains, oilseeds, by-products, and even beef and poultry. The stated aim was to unlock fresh export flows, boost dollar inflows, and stabilise shaky financial markets. The suspension was supposed to last until the end of October, or until exporters declared US$7 billion in sales.
In reality, the policy lasted just two days. Exporters rushed to register sales, hitting the US$7 billion ceiling almost immediately. Soybeans and soybean meal were the biggest beneficiaries, with China reportedly booking 20 bulk cargoes. The move is unlikely to sit well with the US, which has yet to ship a single cargo of soybeans to China this season, an unprecedented development given China was once its largest customer. Wheat and maize also saw a flurry of activity, though soy dominated.
Meanwhile, Black Sea risks are back on the radar. Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, striking at both energy and export capacity. This week, a Ukrainian drone targeted the deep-sea port of Novorossiisk, a dual-use site serving as both a naval depot and a key hub for grain and oil shipments. Adding to the tension, the US President delivered a sharp address at the UN, signalling a tougher rhetorical line towards Moscow. Together, these developments injected fresh risk premium into grain markets.
On the demand side, signs are emerging that importers are beginning to re-engage after months on the sidelines. This week Iran is thought to have booked around 2 mmt of wheat, Algeria purchased roughly 600 kmt, and Jordan issued a tender for 120 kmt.
These deals suggest that the recent easing in wheat values has made the market more attractive to traditional buyers, providing some much-needed demand support.
Next week
Wheat markets are balancing between bearish fundamentals, large global supplies and strong competition from the Black Sea, versus bullish geopolitical risk and returning importer demand. Prices look to be stabilising for now.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Reuters, USDA, Zaner Ag Hedge, Mecardo, Next Level Grain Marketing
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
New Year, old themes
2026 has opened with a familiar driver dominating the headlines: geopolitics. Forget Russia, Venezuela or Greenland, developments in Iran arguably carry far greater implications for
Little joy in terms of price for sellers
The Ashes are over, the Poms are heading home, the traders are back at their desks, and the headers are pulling up. The first grain
Argy production to push price bar lower?
With little fresh direction, wheat prices have continued to follow the path of least resistance, grinding lower. After almost four years of entrenched conflict in
Canola cops international plunge
For southern canola growers, the timing of last week’s decline couldn’t have been much worse. Here we take a look at harvest pricing and whether
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.