The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report had a little bit in it for everyone. US corn yield came in at 180 bu/ac, below the trend-line yield and also below estimates from some of the more respected analysts a week earlier. Area was increased, however, meaning the net result was still higher production. It was the yield number that stole the limelight, though, and it was enough to drag the broader ag complex higher.
Wheat was largely a ho-hum affair, with only minor tweaks to the supply numbers. Major exporters’ stocks increased by 2.9mmt to 61.6mmt, while European and UK production estimates were revised lower in recognition of the drought conditions. Canada and Ukraine, on the other hand, saw production estimates ratcheted higher.
Wheat found some late-week support from the lift in corn, but once again it was the Black Sea that set the tone. Ukraine launched a heavy drone strike on the critical Russian port of Novorossiysk on Wednesday night, forcing the closure of all three grain terminals per BBC reports. The USDA had already trimmed Russian exports by 1.5mmt to 46mmt and Ukraine’s by 1mmt to 13.5mmt. SovEcon had suggested that damaged infrastructure alone could reduce exports by 2–3mmt per month.
The message from the USDA appears to be that the grain will eventually flow, but at a reduced pace and lower overall volume, largely because of the delayed start to the export season.
As it stands today, nearly 95% of Russia’s Black Sea export capacity has ground to a halt. What is interesting is that the market still appears to believe the bottleneck will eventually work itself out. That expectation is likely acting as a wet blanket on what, under normal circumstances, should be significant upward pressure on prices.
Late last night, speculation emerged that Ukraine may be considering some form of ‘de-escalation’. The market promptly went into reverse, erasing the earlier gains.
At this stage, it is nothing more than speculation, but it highlights just how tenuous this market has become. With the Black Sea situation changing almost by the hour, traders remain caught between a genuine supply disruption and the expectation that, somehow, the grain will eventually find a way onto the world market.
Wheat Waits for a Black Sea Breakthrough
The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report had a little bit in it for everyone. US corn yield came in at 180 bu/ac, below the trend-line yield and also below estimates from some of the more respected analysts a week earlier. Area was increased, however, meaning the net result was still higher production. It was the yield number that stole the limelight, though, and it was enough to drag the broader ag complex higher.
Wheat was largely a ho-hum affair, with only minor tweaks to the supply numbers. Major exporters’ stocks increased by 2.9mmt to 61.6mmt, while European and UK production estimates were revised lower in recognition of the drought conditions. Canada and Ukraine, on the other hand, saw production estimates ratcheted higher.
Wheat found some late-week support from the lift in corn, but once again it was the Black Sea that set the tone. Ukraine launched a heavy drone strike on the critical Russian port of Novorossiysk on Wednesday night, forcing the closure of all three grain terminals per BBC reports. The USDA had already trimmed Russian exports by 1.5mmt to 46mmt and Ukraine’s by 1mmt to 13.5mmt. SovEcon had suggested that damaged infrastructure alone could reduce exports by 2–3mmt per month.
The message from the USDA appears to be that the grain will eventually flow, but at a reduced pace and lower overall volume, largely because of the delayed start to the export season.
As it stands today, nearly 95% of Russia’s Black Sea export capacity has ground to a halt. What is interesting is that the market still appears to believe the bottleneck will eventually work itself out. That expectation is likely acting as a wet blanket on what, under normal circumstances, should be significant upward pressure on prices.
Late last night, speculation emerged that Ukraine may be considering some form of ‘de-escalation’. The market promptly went into reverse, erasing the earlier gains.
At this stage, it is nothing more than speculation, but it highlights just how tenuous this market has become. With the Black Sea situation changing almost by the hour, traders remain caught between a genuine supply disruption and the expectation that, somehow, the grain will eventually find a way onto the world market.
Next week
I suspect we will see increased efforts to establish safe passage for food-bearing vessels in the Black Sea. Whether that comes from the two combatants themselves, or through increased pressure from the US or UN, something has to give.
We simply cannot choke off 30% of the world’s wheat export trade without expecting a significantly higher price correction. The longer the disruption persists, the greater that risk becomes. For now, the volatility remains, rising and falling with every headline.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Next Level Grain Marketing, Reuters, BBC, SovEcon, StoneX, USDA Bloomberg, Mecardo
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