The female slaughter rate (FSR) is one of the key figures used to demonstrate what is happening with the Australian beef cattle herd. There has been some debate of late if that figure is still sitting at the right level - with changes in the nature of the herd perhaps meaning that it should be higher before we consider it as herd decline. What we know is that the latest FSR shows the herd having turned a corner.
The FSR is calculated quarterly using data from
the Australian Bureau of Statistics, and for the June period was 53%. Meaning that 53% of cattle slaughter for that
quarter was female. This was a significant jump from the 47% mark where it had
been sitting for the past two quarters (December 2023 and March 2024), and 10%
higher year-on-year than the corresponding quarter. The last time the FSR was
at this level was the September quarter of 2020 when the effects of the 2018-19
drought were still being felt by many producers. Historically, the June quarter
has the highest FSR for the year, but the increase here suggests that the
Australian herd has hit a decline phase, which MLA’s projections align with.
According to ABS figures, total cattle
slaughter for the June quarter lifted 23% year-on-year to reach 2.12 million
head. This was the highest quarterly slaughter figure since the last three
months of 2019, and 21% above the five-year average for the quarter.
Comparatively, the FSR for the December 2019 quarter was at 55%, and the FSR
for the corresponding quarter in 2019 was 58% – so we still have a way to go
before we get to those figures. Generally, we need the cyclical destocking
phase to be teamed with some form of severe seasonal conditions (aka drought)
to reach those heights.
Looking at it on a state-by-state basis,
NSW is the standout, with an FSR of 57%, about 8% above the five-year average
for the quarter, and the highest figure for the state for at least the past 15
years. It has been a tale of two parts for NSW weather wise, with a majority of
the state receiving fairly average conditions, but the south-east experiencing
one of the toughest seasons many can remember. Also playing a role in this
figure has been the growth in the NSW herd in recent years, and the prevalence
of processing, lotfeeding or finishing happening across the northern border.
South Australia, which has been experiencing a very dry year, was also well
above the average FSR at 54%.
What does it mean?
The past four years have been a period of strong growth for the Australian female cattle herd, and while the FSR now indicates we’ve moved into a herd decline phase, current good seasonal conditions in high cattle production areas mean female turnoff is unlikely to balloon too quickly here on out.
Strong global protein demand, especially from the US, a major market for the lean beef which is produced from cull cows, also means plenty of support on the demand front. The National Cow indicator is 50% higher than it was 12 months ago, and about 13% above the 10-year-average. This all points to what is hopefully a gradual decline of herd numbers without significant downward pressure applied to the market – if the weather cooperates.
Key Points
- The female slaughter ratio for the June 2024 quarter was 53%, pointing towards decline in the national cattle herd.
- The NSW FSR is 57%, the highest its been in the state for 15 years.
- Current good seasonal conditions in high cattle production areas mean female turnoff is unlikely to continue to inflate in the short term.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
