President Trump has been at it again, talking about imposing tariffs on all agricultural imports, (albeit via the X platform). This leads to all sorts of questions as to how it will impact Australian agricultural commodities. The good news for grain producers is that negative impacts will be minimal.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics Trade Dashboard (See here), Australia exported $7.1 billion worth of agricultural goods to the USA in 2023–24, with very little of that being grain or oilseeds.
The dashboard is a good resource, but it includes things like ‘Carton boxes and ‘Basketwork’ and ‘Pencils’. Who knew Australia exported $196 worth of pencils to the US last year.
Trawling through the data on the dashboard is quite time consuming, but we managed to find the main Australian ag exports to the US. Figure 1 show beef, sheepmeat, goat meat and animal fats made up 72% of total export value in 2023-24.
Grain exports to the US are minimal. No Australian wheat has been exported to the US in the last five years. There was $15,840 worth of barley exported to the US from July to December 2024.
There is a bit more in the Canola space, with $25.6 million worth of canola oil exported to the US in 2023-24. This is a tiny proportion of the $5 billion worth of total canola seed and oil exported.
Given the small number of exports from the cropping sector of Australian agriculture, there will be little negative direct impact on Australian grain and oilseed prices.
Where prices are currently being impacted is the volatility it is causing in international futures markets. Canola has been bouncing around for months on the back of tariffs concerns. Wheat tanked last week as retaliatory tariffs on the US were mentioned.
Our prices are still following international leads, but to a lesser extent. If tariffs make US wheat more expensive, it could shift demand our way, supporting prices to some extent.
What does it mean?
One concern around tariffs is decoupling of our prices from international values we use to hedge prices. Tariffs can make markets move rapidly when imposed or retracted, and this can lead to financial loss that might not be reflected in physical prices.
Key Points
- Australian grain and oilseed exports to the US are minimal.
- US tariffs on ag products will have little direct impact on grain and oilseed prices.
- Of more concern is the volatility in international grain markets, and decoupling of our prices.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: ABS, Mecardo, Bloomberg, ABARES
