US markets have been tracking along almost blissfully unaware of what has been unfolding across the Atlantic. If anything, US wheat futures have been content to follow global values lower as Northern Hemisphere harvest pressure and sluggish export demand continue to weigh on prices.
That changed briefly this week when the USDA released its latest planted acreage report. It confirmed that US wheat area has fallen to its lowest level in 130 years. The USDA estimated 2026 wheat plantings at 17.30 million hectares, down almost 1 million hectares (6%) from the 18.35 million hectares planted in 2025.
The harvested area paints an even more sobering picture. The USDA expects only 12.98 million hectares to be harvested, meaning roughly 25% of the planted crop will be abandoned. That is a stark reminder of the severe drought that gripped large parts of the US Plains this season.
The market initially rallied on the figures, but the enthusiasm was short-lived. Once the data had been absorbed, and with little fresh bullish news to sustain the move, prices quickly levelled out.
One of the more surprising details buried within the report was the increase in US corn acreage. Most analysts had expected corn plantings to decline in favour of soybeans, supported by strong biofuel demand, hopes of increased Chinese buying and the high cost of imputs. Instead, growers planted more corn. Perhaps it simply reinforces the idea that crop rotations remain the biggest driver of planting decisions.
That also helps explain why US markets have largely ignored the extreme heat gripping Western Europe. European corn prices have rallied around 14% over the past fortnight as producers watch crops deteriorate under unprecedented temperatures.
The US will get its first real taste of summer this week as a high-pressure “heat dome” settles over much of the Corn Belt. Unlike wheat, corn is a C4 plant, making it far more efficient under hot conditions. As long as adequate soil moisture is available—and at present, much of the Corn Belt has plenty of it and the crop can tolerate extreme temperatures remarkably well.
With the Northern Hemisphere wheat crop now largely known, market attention will increasingly shift towards the spring crops—corn, soybeans and sunflowers. At this stage, Europe carries the greatest production uncertainty. US crops remain in generally good condition, while South America’s safrinha (second-crop) corn continues to get bigger. Any meaningful threat to global corn production over the coming weeks could become the next major catalyst for grain markets.
Next week
Some analysts believe the wheat market has finally found its floor. I’m not so convinced. Russian harvest results continue to improve, while major importers such as Egypt and Türkiye remain notably absent from the market, with imports down 21% and 46% respectively. Unless demand returns soon, there is still a risk that fresh Northern Hemisphere supplies will struggle to find homes, leaving wheat prices vulnerable to further weakness before a more sustainable recovery can take hold.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report was released on Friday, showing a tightening trend across wheat
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Will Corn be the King maker?
That changed briefly this week when the USDA released its latest planted acreage report. It confirmed that US wheat area has fallen to its lowest level in 130 years. The USDA estimated 2026 wheat plantings at 17.30 million hectares, down almost 1 million hectares (6%) from the 18.35 million hectares planted in 2025.
The harvested area paints an even more sobering picture. The USDA expects only 12.98 million hectares to be harvested, meaning roughly 25% of the planted crop will be abandoned. That is a stark reminder of the severe drought that gripped large parts of the US Plains this season.
The market initially rallied on the figures, but the enthusiasm was short-lived. Once the data had been absorbed, and with little fresh bullish news to sustain the move, prices quickly levelled out.
One of the more surprising details buried within the report was the increase in US corn acreage. Most analysts had expected corn plantings to decline in favour of soybeans, supported by strong biofuel demand, hopes of increased Chinese buying and the high cost of imputs. Instead, growers planted more corn. Perhaps it simply reinforces the idea that crop rotations remain the biggest driver of planting decisions.
That also helps explain why US markets have largely ignored the extreme heat gripping Western Europe. European corn prices have rallied around 14% over the past fortnight as producers watch crops deteriorate under unprecedented temperatures.
The US will get its first real taste of summer this week as a high-pressure “heat dome” settles over much of the Corn Belt. Unlike wheat, corn is a C4 plant, making it far more efficient under hot conditions. As long as adequate soil moisture is available—and at present, much of the Corn Belt has plenty of it and the crop can tolerate extreme temperatures remarkably well.
With the Northern Hemisphere wheat crop now largely known, market attention will increasingly shift towards the spring crops—corn, soybeans and sunflowers. At this stage, Europe carries the greatest production uncertainty. US crops remain in generally good condition, while South America’s safrinha (second-crop) corn continues to get bigger. Any meaningful threat to global corn production over the coming weeks could become the next major catalyst for grain markets.
Next week
Some analysts believe the wheat market has finally found its floor. I’m not so convinced. Russian harvest results continue to improve, while major importers such as Egypt and Türkiye remain notably absent from the market, with imports down 21% and 46% respectively. Unless demand returns soon, there is still a risk that fresh Northern Hemisphere supplies will struggle to find homes, leaving wheat prices vulnerable to further weakness before a more sustainable recovery can take hold.
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Data sources: Next Level Grain Marketing, World Ag, Bloomberg, USDA, Sov Econ, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
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Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.