Sheep,In,Bogged,Paddock,During,The,February,2012,Floods,Near

Rain is in the gauge and on the radar for southern sheep regions that have been in desperate need of a drink. While it hasn’t translated to an overnight market reaction, with prices largely steady to slightly softer this week, a decent lead into spring is what we are all hoping for.

At Bendigo saleyard reports noted that lead pens of heavy-trade lambs sold in an impressive range of $210 to $235/head. While trade weight lambs numbers remain thin in Victoria, and prices this week averaged 776¢/kg cwt, in NSW the major selling centres are providing the bulk of the offering, at an average price of 818¢/kg cwt. New season trade and heavy-weight lambs appeared in good quality in Wagga and they were met with solid demand.

Nationally, heavy lambs gained 7¢ on the week to settle at 819¢/kg cwt which is 12% higher than the five-year average for this point in the season. On the other end of the spectrum, light lambs in NSW are holding within their recent trading range of 670-680¢/kg cwt, while in both Vic and SA, the market has been more volatile, with light lambs losing 37¢/kg this week but a sizeable spread appearing between the two states. Light lambs in Vic this week averaged 593¢/kg versus 660¢/kg in SA.

Mutton continued on its slight downward trend this week, with the National Mutton Indicator closing 10¢ lower at 362¢/kg cwt. Mutton is currently priced 27% below five-year average levels but as recently highlighted in this Mecardo article, sits within a reasonable discount to lamb prices given the level of supply.

Lamb numbers contracted this week, with preliminary reports from MLA showing 168,040 lambs yarded nationally which was down 16% on the prior week. Despite the decline, lamb throughput was still 8% stronger than five-year average levels for this point in the season. It was a similar story with sheep volumes, declining 11% on last week while remaining 37% up on five-year average levels.

As we know, slaughter volumes have been tracking at levels well above the previous two years in 2024, however, last week we saw them slip slightly below the same time last year. This was driven by a decline in the lamb kill, with sheep slaughter rates remaining at recent levels. 

Next week

The question on everyone’s mind is how new season lamb prices will track in the months ahead. Southern areas that are dealing with a tough season and limited feed are likely to struggle to put weight on lambs which should keep values attractive for anything with weight. Demand from restockers is a big unknown, however with the rain that’s fallen in western Vic, Tasmania and southern WA in the last week combined with what’s on the forecast, some producers may be looking at the outlook a little more favourably.

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!

Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

Make decisions with confidence- ask about our board packs, bespoke forecasting and risk management services

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!
Sheep

Here comes the rain again

Spring is coming to an end, but the consequences of the dry southern winter continue to drive the market. The search for weight is creating

Read More »

Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?

Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks

Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published

Commodity conversations podcast cover image, a illustration of a sheep standing on a cow's back with grain either side
Listen to the podcast

Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.

Photo of a farmer surrounded by Merino sheep in dusty yards
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock

In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making. 

Image of harvested grain pouring into a chaser bin
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE

We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.