Rain is in the gauge and on the radar for southern sheep regions that have been in desperate need of a drink. While it hasn’t translated to an overnight market reaction, with prices largely steady to slightly softer this week, a decent lead into spring is what we are all hoping for.
At Bendigo saleyard reports noted that lead pens of heavy-trade
lambs sold in an impressive range of $210 to $235/head. While trade weight
lambs numbers remain thin in Victoria, and prices this week averaged 776¢/kg
cwt, in NSW the major selling centres are providing the bulk of the offering,
at an average price of 818¢/kg cwt. New season trade and heavy-weight lambs
appeared in good quality in Wagga and they were met with solid demand.
Nationally, heavy lambs gained 7¢ on the week to settle at
819¢/kg cwt which is 12% higher than the five-year average for this point in
the season. On the other end of the spectrum, light lambs in NSW are holding
within their recent trading range of 670-680¢/kg cwt, while in both Vic and SA,
the market has been more volatile, with light lambs losing 37¢/kg this week but
a sizeable spread appearing between the two states. Light lambs in Vic this
week averaged 593¢/kg versus 660¢/kg in SA.
Mutton continued on its slight downward trend this week,
with the National Mutton Indicator closing 10¢ lower at 362¢/kg cwt. Mutton is
currently priced 27% below five-year average levels but as recently highlighted
in this Mecardo
article, sits within a reasonable discount to lamb prices given the level
of supply.
Lamb numbers contracted this week, with preliminary reports
from MLA showing 168,040 lambs yarded nationally which was down 16% on the
prior week. Despite the decline, lamb throughput was still 8% stronger than five-year
average levels for this point in the season. It was a similar story with sheep
volumes, declining 11% on last week while remaining 37% up on five-year average
levels.
As we know, slaughter volumes have been tracking at levels
well above the previous two years in 2024, however, last week we saw them slip
slightly below the same time last year. This was driven by a decline in the
lamb kill, with sheep slaughter rates remaining at recent levels.
Next week
The question on everyone’s mind is how new season lamb prices will track in the months ahead. Southern areas that are dealing with a tough season and limited feed are likely to struggle to put weight on lambs which should keep values attractive for anything with weight. Demand from restockers is a big unknown, however with the rain that’s fallen in western Vic, Tasmania and southern WA in the last week combined with what’s on the forecast, some producers may be looking at the outlook a little more favourably.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about
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Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Will southern rain cause a stir
At Bendigo saleyard reports noted that lead pens of heavy-trade lambs sold in an impressive range of $210 to $235/head. While trade weight lambs numbers remain thin in Victoria, and prices this week averaged 776¢/kg cwt, in NSW the major selling centres are providing the bulk of the offering, at an average price of 818¢/kg cwt. New season trade and heavy-weight lambs appeared in good quality in Wagga and they were met with solid demand.
Nationally, heavy lambs gained 7¢ on the week to settle at 819¢/kg cwt which is 12% higher than the five-year average for this point in the season. On the other end of the spectrum, light lambs in NSW are holding within their recent trading range of 670-680¢/kg cwt, while in both Vic and SA, the market has been more volatile, with light lambs losing 37¢/kg this week but a sizeable spread appearing between the two states. Light lambs in Vic this week averaged 593¢/kg versus 660¢/kg in SA.
Mutton continued on its slight downward trend this week, with the National Mutton Indicator closing 10¢ lower at 362¢/kg cwt. Mutton is currently priced 27% below five-year average levels but as recently highlighted in this Mecardo article, sits within a reasonable discount to lamb prices given the level of supply.
Lamb numbers contracted this week, with preliminary reports from MLA showing 168,040 lambs yarded nationally which was down 16% on the prior week. Despite the decline, lamb throughput was still 8% stronger than five-year average levels for this point in the season. It was a similar story with sheep volumes, declining 11% on last week while remaining 37% up on five-year average levels.
As we know, slaughter volumes have been tracking at levels well above the previous two years in 2024, however, last week we saw them slip slightly below the same time last year. This was driven by a decline in the lamb kill, with sheep slaughter rates remaining at recent levels.
Next week
The question on everyone’s mind is how new season lamb prices will track in the months ahead. Southern areas that are dealing with a tough season and limited feed are likely to struggle to put weight on lambs which should keep values attractive for anything with weight. Demand from restockers is a big unknown, however with the rain that’s fallen in western Vic, Tasmania and southern WA in the last week combined with what’s on the forecast, some producers may be looking at the outlook a little more favourably.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
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Here comes the rain again
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Early indications of weaker lamb supply for 2025
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly livestock slaughter and meat production figures for September last week. The numbers explain a lot about
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.