Winter blues

Across MLA saleyard reports, the story was clear. Easing supply, a lot more variation in weight and quality on offer, and a more subdued group of buyers culminated in a softer market.  In Wagga, feeders were not as keen as previous weeks and processors had a limit on their willingness to pay. Patchy quality in Ballarat saw prices ease but premiums remain for the top end heavy export market lambs.  Naracoorte numbers were down and wintery but across the Nullarbor, Katanning was a bump in numbers and demand.

All indicators finished the week lower (see Indicator Table) ranging from 17¢ to 43¢ declines.  Merino lambs are now back to month ago levels and with the exception of Heavy lambs, all indicators still remain above year ago levels.  Even in a slow week, lambs are trading comfortably on average in the $11/kg cwt range. The National Mutton Indicator (NMI) lost 20¢ to 896¢/kg cwt.

Last weeks combined slaughter count per the NLRS was 348k head, which is the lowest mid-year slaughter figure since 2022.  Turnoff sheep slaughter continues to be weighed down by declining sheep throughput. Winter declines are pretty standard but the extent to which numbers are evaporating puts the trade is a tricky spot.  Numbers to the yards are down 58% this week compared to the last week of Autumn, the 5-year average decline is 38% in the same period.  The downturn isn’t as steep as last year, but Mutton are worth $70/head more than this time last year too. 

What this means for the trade moving forward was a key focus for Jamie – Lee Oldfield this week on Mecardo who had a look at the state of slaughter as the trade continues to deal with dramatic supply declines (Read more here).  Sheep slaughter remains in decline, but levels are yet to consistently fall to previous rebuild cycle numbers.