Winter supply remains strong

Unlike the dramatic rush of supply driven by drought we saw in the south last year and in the tablelands earlier this year, Queensland supply through to the yards has been elevated (+18% YoY for the year to date) but steady particularly across this winter period.

Across MLA Saleyard reports, the spread of cattle suggests that the level of throughput is more a symptom of the high stocking rates of the last few seasons as opposed to any sort of liquidation.  Roma buyers demonstrated strong interest in an offering dominated by Yearlings, Dalby hosted restocker buyers and exporters interested in store and cull cows respectively.  Charters Towers had another strong yarding pushing prices lower as Northern cattle supply continues to gain momentum.  Despite recent rain, Wagga buyers were more subdued this week reflecting the mixed offering, similarly at Ballarat the stock resembled a more typical winter yarding impacting demand.  Overall, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) eased 17¢ to 1004¢/kg cwt.

Indicators for the most part remained unchanged on a ¢/kg basis (see Indicator table).  The steepest declines this week were for Yearling restocker steers which dropped 27¢ to 534¢/kg a reflection of the inconsistency in southern cattle and more willingness at current prices to buy from lot feeders.

On Mecardo this week Jamie-Lee Oldfield, did a progress report on the state of beef demand and competition (article available here). With sky high cattle prices to remain sustainable, processors and exporters have to pass on the additional cost through to beef importers.  The outlook for beef demand remains strong but 2^nd half 2026 will likely see prices ease as Brazilian and Australian volumes converge on the US market which remains less productive YoY for its own domestic production.   In the meantime, locally processor demand remains robust over the winter period.