Indicators (See Table 1, National Indicators Table), were relatively mixed with Mutton (+36¢) and Trade lambs (+40¢) the best performers. The rest saw single digit improvement or decline. After an up and down few weeks, the majority of lamb indicators are averaging above $11/kg cwt. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator improved 38¢ to 1239¢/kg cwt.
Rainfall remained average or better in May in the east coast’s key sheep regions, which typically drive the market. It’s played a dual role of motivating producers to keep stock on hand, further tightening supply but also ensuring that those who are in the market to restock are competitive at auction to secure what is available.
Heavier grainfed trade lambs have been the belle of the ball at the yards, and the tail end lambs coming to market now will be destined for grain over winter. The drop in light lamb numbers has been driven by producers opting to keep stock on hand to target heavier weights. In May 2025, the National light lamb indicator included over 800K head for the month, this May it was 321K head, a 60% YoY decline in stock that qualify.
Per the US Trade representative, Australian sheepmeat (among other products) might be subject to a fresh new tariff rate of 12.5%. The update isn’t a gigantic change from the current situation, but an artificial cost on top of current Australian lamb prices isn’t ideal for either US importers or Australian exporters who likely have to wear some of the impact to keep our most important customers in a buying mood.
Despite the volatile nature of global trade, the data suggests that the underlying supply and demand fundamentals remain supportive of Australian exports into the US market. Saleyard pricing for Australian Heavy lambs (which typically end up in a box to the US) averaged $351/head this week. Per Mecardo analysis the other week (read more here), we estimate that a 24-kilogram carcase weight lamb the price in the US is around $600 in Australian dollar terms. Despite the downtick in supply locally, US sheep supply is also under pressure. Aussie lambs are cheaper and there is more stock available, so affordability and more reliable volumes will likely ensure that Australia remains a logical supply partner at current prices.
Winter Wonderland
Next week
The ESTLI as of today is 1¢ off the high tide mark in the last 12 months so everything higher than where we are right now is new ground for trade lamb prices. The key difference was the high tide mark typically predated the spring flush by a week or two, but we are still months away from this year’s flush and some supply relief.
This bodes well for prices pushing even higher in winter this year, but how sustainable are $13/kg lambs for the rest of the supply chain?
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Bureau of Meteorology, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
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