With the eternal battle between enterprises for farm resources continuing, it is interesting to stand back and see what has changed and what hasn’t between regions when it comes to wool production during the past two decades.
For merino wool, the change in volume and change in fibre
diameter have been the two big trends of the past three decades. The two trends
are linked with broader merino production having a greater fall in production
as the average merino fibre diameter trended lower. Between 2004 and 2024 the
AWTA core test volumes fell by 29% in greasy terms. Within the micron
distribution, 21-micron volumes fell by 71%, 19 micron fell by 14% and 17
micron increased by 120%.
With this variable change in micron categories in mind
Figure 1 looks at the average merino fibre diameter from 20 wool regions around
Australia for F2024 (2023-24), F2014 and F2004, providing a comparison of last
season to a decade and two decades ago. Most regions have reduced their merino
fibre diameter by around 1.5 micron, and in doing so (as a general rule) have
kept their ranking by micron.
One notable exception has been northern NSW (which for this
analysis is the northern tablelands of NSW and Traprock in southeast
Queensland) which has slipped to third place behind Tasmania and the Monaro in
recent years. At the other end of the scale, the eastern pastoral regions
(northern Queensland, northern South Australia, far west NSW and the western
Riverina) continue to grow the broadest merino wool. Given the genetic trends
in Merino Select, it seems unlikely this trend to finer merino wool will
continue (read
more here).
Volume (clean basis) is the next factor looked at, in Figure
2. The regions have been sorted along the proportion of clean wool sold in
2023-24 coming from them. Rehandle wool is not included in this analysis as it
is not possible to attribute such wool accurately to its region of origin. Most
regions have maintained their ranking according to the proportion of supply
with a few exceptions. Northern NSW has dropped from 6.6% which would have put
it in the top three regions in 2004 to the middle of the list. In Western
Australia, the Central and South East region has dropped from a middle position
in 2004 to the fourth smallest in 2024. South Australian wool production has
improved relative to the other regions.
The third big trend in wool and sheep production has been the swing from historically high levels of merino in the early to mid-1990s towards non-merino sheep meat production. Figure 3 shows the proportion of merino wool from the different regions, ranked from highest to lowest in 2023-24. Queensland has the highest proportion with Western Australian regions plus eastern pastoral regions coming in next, also with high proportions of merino wool.
At the other end of the scale Victoria and Tasmania come in with
the lowest proportion of merino, having the biggest rise in non-merino
production during the past two decades. In this sense Victorian sheep, wool and
lamb production is simply returning to a mid-20th century structure,
after a diversion into merino production in the 1980s. Northern NSW also gets
an honourable mention with the merino proportion of its clip dropping from 94%
to 76%, as of F2024.
What does it mean?
While there has been little change in the relative volumes of wool production between regions, the current situation in Western Australia suggests there will be some shuffling of places in the next few years. It is in the proportion of merino wool in the clip (or the proportion of non-merino wool) which is where the big changes have come in recent decades and given the relative prices of lamb and merino wool at present it seems likely further change is on the way.
Key Points
- The reduction in merino fibre diameter has been fairly uniform across regions, keeping in mind there is a 2.5 micron gap between the finest and broadest regional merino clips.
- The proportion of wool production between regions, with a few exceptions, has been fairly constant.
- Where a big change has occurred is in the proportion of merino wool in regional clips with Victoria, southern South Australia, Tasmania, the southwest slopes of NSW, and central and northern tablelands of NSW all seeing substantial increases in non-merino wool proportion of sales.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWEX, BAE, ICS, Mecardo
