Greasy wool supply is top of mind in the upper stages of the supply chain as mills balance low stocks, potential increases in demand, and falling production. This article takes a look at the latest AWTA core test volume data with this in mind.
AWTA core test volumes had been running 18% down year on year for the three months to September. October has proved different, with a 5.5% rise in total AWTA compared to October 2024. A 33% (512 cents clean) rise in price from mid-2025 to October 1 has lured stored wool on-farm into store. There are enough stories from brokers doing the rounds to assume that most of the swing from falling to rising volumes for October is likely due to these stocks, plus some shearing brought forward due to dry conditions. November and December volumes will provide enough data to test this view, but it is a reasonable hypothesis to work with for the time being.
To look at changes in volume by micron category, Figure 1 shows the three-month smoothed change in eastern and western AWTA core test volumes. The Western Australian clip is swinging broader on the back of improved seasonal conditions. In October, the average merino fibre diameter for wool sold in Western Australia reached its highest level in two years. This shows in Figure 1 with big falls in volumes tested on the finer edge of the distributions and increases in 20/21 micron volumes (a rare occurrence in recent years). Despite this fall in western fine wool production, 16.5–17.5 MPGs have been quoted regularly in Fremantle in recent months.
In the east, the merino clip is still running at finer levels (some 0.2 micron finer than October 2024), so sub-17 micron volumes are up and 19 micron and broader volumes are down. Crossbred volumes are also falling, reflecting the tough conditions of the past year in Victoria, southern NSW, and southern South Australia, where approximately half the crossbred clip comes from.
Figure 2 shows the same changes as Figure 1 but in farm bale rather than percentage terms. The 19 to 21 micron category volumes are being dragged lower by falls in eastern production, despite increases in western volumes.
Finally, in Figure 3, the rolling year-on-year change in total volume (three-month smoothed) is shown from 2018 onwards, along with a weighted rolling 12-month rainfall rank for wool production regions. Rainfall has been ‘agin’ wool production for a large part of the past seven years. The low rainfall rank (dragged down by South Australia, Victoria, and the Riverina in NSW) has been low in 2024 and 2025, contributing in large part to the fall in wool volume (and sheep numbers).
What does it mean?
In terms of overall volume, the national clip continues to track below year-earlier levels (using a smoothed three-month change as a measure). We will see in November and December if the jump in October volumes was an aberration brought on by improved prices or not. The Western Australian clip is broadening, so it will soften the continued move finer seen in the east due to dry seasonal conditions there. Much-reduced broader merino wool (compared to finer wool) volumes will continue to put downward pressure on micron premiums and discounts.
Key Points
- October AWTA volumes were up 5.5% on October 2024, a sharp change to recent trends in production.
- It is likely this jump in October volumes was primarily due to on farm wool lured into store by the jump in greasy wool prices.
- The western clip is broadening on improved seasonal conditions.
- The eastern clip continues to be finer (year on year).
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: AWTA, ICS, Mecardo
