Cattle prices have been on the rise here in Australia as tightening supply starts to bite. If you thought prices were strong here, a quick look at cattle prices in the US puts our prices into perspective.
Despite a small correction last week, US cattle prices are well and truly in the extreme zone. Figure 1 shows US Feeder and Live Cattle Futures in US¢/lb. A weakening US herd led to lower supply, with futures spending most of 2024 at record levels.
There is some conjecture as to whether the herd rebuild in the US has taken hold yet, but even so, 2025 has seen further rallies in US cattle prices. Live Cattle Futures are priced on heavy grain-fed cattle exiting feedlots, and we can see in Figure 1 that prices have gained 15.5% this year.
Feeder Cattle Futures have rallied even harder. Weakening feed grain prices have helped US feedlot margins and pushed Feeder Cattle Futures 28% higher this year. Feeder Cattle Futures have also come off what were previously record highs.
Looking at prices in ¢/lb doesn’t mean a lot to the Australian cattle producer, so we can convert these numbers into ¢/kg cwt and compare them to the roughly equivalent Australian version.
Figure 2 shows Live Cattle Futures in our terms, alongside the NSW Heavy Steer Indicator. While the NSW Heavy Steer is almost back to the peaks of 2022, it is still well behind Live Cattle Futures in the US. In dollars per head, a 360kg cwt steer is worth $4,460/hd in the US, compared to $3,110/hd here.
For feeder cattle the difference is starker. Figure 3 shows US Feeder Cattle Futures at 2170¢/kg cwt, or 1,170¢/kg lwt in the current market. It should be noted that feeder cattle are generally lighter in the US than here, in the 250–400kg range, which still puts them at $3,700 per head at 320kg in our terms.
Locally, similar cattle are making $1,500–$1,600 per head, so US cattle producers are doing pretty well. Weakening feed grain prices have helped drive US feeder cattle prices, and while margins might be tight, feedlotters in the US are still paying up for cattle.
What does it mean?
Extreme cattle prices in the US are good for our prices. Expensive beef in the US directs demand to Australia and increases what they are willing to pay for our manufacturing beef. We know demand for beef is good, it is strong local supply and processing capacity which will keep a lid on cattle prices.
Key Points
- Cattle prices in the US have rallied strongly this year to new records.
- US cattle values are well ahead of Australia, with feeders extremely strong.
- Strong cattle prices in the US are good for prices here despite local limitations.
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Click on figure to expand
Data sources: CME,MLA, Mecardo
