The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has long been a price point of interest for the industry, and while it has in some ways been surpassed by more comprehensive indicators, it still gives us a good guide to how the cattle market is trending. As we can see from Figure 1, competing domestic and global forces are sending the market on a rollercoaster ride this year.
Traditionally, the EYCI doesn’t experience a huge amount of variation throughout the calendar year, generally trending within a 50¢/kg carcase weight range. Both the five- and ten-year average weekly EYCI prices peak at the end of October before holding steady through to the end of the year. The price increase between now and that peak is 10¢/kg for both the five- and ten-year figures; however, both averages start trending higher from the beginning of August.
That isn’t the case in 2025. Long-awaited rainfall in southern Australia during winter meant the EYCI rose rapidly by 23% from the start of July to the start of September, when it peaked at the 900¢/kg mark. Since then, it has been on the decline, closing Friday at 872¢/kg, down 18¢/kg for the week and 27¢/kg lower than it was one month prior. This comes as southern Australia once again waits for rain, with producers exercising significant caution on the back of failed seasons. Last week, more than 50% of EYCI-eligible stock sold to feeders, with restockers taking just 38%. If we go back two months to the first week of August, the split was 47% and 43% respectively.
Historically, the EYCI is still trading at strong levels, having only been higher than it currently is at this time of year twice before. It closed last week 25% above the ten-year average and 5% above the five-year average, and has now been trading at a premium to the short-term figure since the start of August. Again, the calendar year average so far has only been higher twice before, with the EYCI currently at 739¢/kg for 2025. Year on year, the EYCI is currently operating at the largest premium so far this year of 37%. As we can see from Figure 1, the EYCI also started to trend lower at this time last year.
I’ve included 2020 in Figure 1 for two reasons — it was a year of improved seasonal conditions coming off the back of high slaughter, and the EYCI averaged 738¢/kg for the year, just 1¢/kg shy of where the 2025 EYCI is currently averaging. The difference, of course, is that after drought conditions broke in 2020, most areas in the south experienced consecutive exceptional seasons, which shows what could be the EYCI trajectory if a good spring eventuates this year. The year-on-year difference for this very week between 2019 and 2020 was also 37%.
What does it mean?
Global demand for Australian beef and strong restocker intent out of Queensland have kept young cattle prices historically strong, with rain in the south boosting them significantly during the last two months of winter. However, a lack of consistent spring rainfall in southern production areas is already taking its toll, and much like the season, young cattle prices are now on a knife’s edge — add water and we could see them well supported, but without it, they are likely to continue trending down as we head into summer.
Key Points
- Young cattle prices remain near record highs, with feeder and finished steer prices not having risen as strongly.
- Gross margins on young steers bought now look like they will be at historically good levels.
- There is some risk to the downside in cattle margins, but tight supply should provide support.
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Data sources: MLA, Steiner, Mecardo
