La Niña is fading fast and the Autumn rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is looking very different from what we’ve seen over the past 36 months. Year-to-date lamb & sheep supply is tracking higher than 2022 and five-year average levels. A drier outlook may see stock turned off earlier.
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 13¢ over the week to settle at 727¢/kg cwt. This is 88¢ (-11%) lower than the same time last year. The Western Australian Trade Lamb Indicator (WATLI) continued the downward trend, finishing at 560¢kg/cwt, a new low since November. This is 253¢ or (-31%) below this time last year.
There was little movement in the Restocker Lamb Indicator this week. 31% of restocker lamb throughput came through Central Victoria Livestock Exchange (CVLX) Ballarat where total lamb and sheep yardings were stronger than the week prior. Merino lambs lost 54¢ over the week, with the National Indicator ending the week at 598¢/kg cwt, 136¢ (-18%) lower year-on-year.
Finished lamb prices remain within the trading range we’ve seen since the start of 2023. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator moved 12¢ lower over the week to 785¢/kg cwt. The heavy lamb head count was almost 10,000 head higher than at the same time last week, so it looks as though stronger supply was the driver of the slightly softer prices.
Despite a lift in saleyard throughput, mutton prices improved, with the National Mutton Indicator gaining 15¢ to 345¢/kg cwt.
Total east coast slaughter of lamb and mutton lifted 5% in the week ending the 24th of February, compared to the week prior. Sheep slaughter remained strong, with a 2% lift week-on-week. East coast sheep slaughter was 47% higher than the same time last year, while lamb slaughter was similar to the same week in 2022.
The early saleyard throughput reports are already showing stronger supply in Vic, NSW, and WA this week. Last week lamb yardings nationally had dropped by around 21,000 head to 155,000 head. At the time of writing, lamb yardings this week are reported at over 185,000 head. It was a similar story with sheep supply, with saleyard throughput this week bouncing back to over 105,000 head.
The week ahead….
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Autumn outlook has taken a turn for the worse. With the exception of the southeast coastline and southern & eastern Tasmania, the BOM is forecasting that below-median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia from March to May (Figure 2). With large parts of NSW, north & east Victoria, and southwest WA receiving below-average rainfall in February, drying paddocks is likely to encourage turnoff.
The big spring store sales are progressing through the Riverina, and it coincides with rapid spring growth in high rainfall zones further south and east.
Australian sheep and lamb exports increased in September but remained subdued in relation to recent trends. The US took dominant market share for the month,
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Autumn’s arrival brings a changed outlook
The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESTLI) dropped 13¢ over the week to settle at 727¢/kg cwt. This is 88¢ (-11%) lower than the same time last year. The Western Australian Trade Lamb Indicator (WATLI) continued the downward trend, finishing at 560¢kg/cwt, a new low since November. This is 253¢ or (-31%) below this time last year.
There was little movement in the Restocker Lamb Indicator this week. 31% of restocker lamb throughput came through Central Victoria Livestock Exchange (CVLX) Ballarat where total lamb and sheep yardings were stronger than the week prior. Merino lambs lost 54¢ over the week, with the National Indicator ending the week at 598¢/kg cwt, 136¢ (-18%) lower year-on-year.
Finished lamb prices remain within the trading range we’ve seen since the start of 2023. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator moved 12¢ lower over the week to 785¢/kg cwt. The heavy lamb head count was almost 10,000 head higher than at the same time last week, so it looks as though stronger supply was the driver of the slightly softer prices.
Despite a lift in saleyard throughput, mutton prices improved, with the National Mutton Indicator gaining 15¢ to 345¢/kg cwt.
Total east coast slaughter of lamb and mutton lifted 5% in the week ending the 24th of February, compared to the week prior. Sheep slaughter remained strong, with a 2% lift week-on-week. East coast sheep slaughter was 47% higher than the same time last year, while lamb slaughter was similar to the same week in 2022.
The early saleyard throughput reports are already showing stronger supply in Vic, NSW, and WA this week. Last week lamb yardings nationally had dropped by around 21,000 head to 155,000 head. At the time of writing, lamb yardings this week are reported at over 185,000 head. It was a similar story with sheep supply, with saleyard throughput this week bouncing back to over 105,000 head.
The week ahead….
The Bureau of Meteorology’s (BOM) Autumn outlook has taken a turn for the worse. With the exception of the southeast coastline and southern & eastern Tasmania, the BOM is forecasting that below-median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia from March to May (Figure 2). With large parts of NSW, north & east Victoria, and southwest WA receiving below-average rainfall in February, drying paddocks is likely to encourage turnoff.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: BOM, MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Lamb lifts despite market rush
Strong processor demand for new season lambs and rain falling in the southeast of the country put the lamb market in the green this week,
Taking a punt on merino lambs?
The big spring store sales are progressing through the Riverina, and it coincides with rapid spring growth in high rainfall zones further south and east.
Market kicks as quality starts to arrive
The story of supply has been driving the market since Winter, and demand has been reactive. Last week, there was movement at the station when
FTA fuels UK sheepmeat market
Australian sheep and lamb exports increased in September but remained subdued in relation to recent trends. The US took dominant market share for the month,
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.