How quickly things can turn. The lamb & sheep market wasn’t a pretty sight this week with prices collapsing across all categories as supply lifted and buyers stepped away.
Prices for finished lambs at least had been holding relatively well in recent weeks but a flood of supply left demand in the doldrums. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESLTI) dropped 70¢ (9%) over the week to end at 689¢/kg cwt. We have seen trade lamb prices lower this season, in August when the FMD fears sent the market to 634¢, but given the big volumes still to come we might not have reached the low yet. The ESTLI is currently 115¢ lower than four weeks ago.
The sentiment was very different in the West, with trade lambs improving 26¢ over the week to end at 602¢. This is 93¢ higher than four weeks ago.
For the heavy lamb market there has been a lot of volatility over the last month and this week we saw the National Indicator drop 73¢/kg cwt to sit at 743¢/kg cwt, 77¢ lower than four weeks ago. Restocker lamb prices have been on a donward trend since early November and this continues this week with the National Indicator dropping another 57¢ to end at 646¢/kg cwt. A large lift in young lamb supply was a driver in this movement.
Mutton was one of the worst performers in this weeks market. The National Mutton Indicator dropped 132¢ over the week to settle at 325¢. This was a 29% fall in just a single week and mutton is down by about 182¢ or 36% in the last four weeks.
If we turn back to last week we saw a large jump in supply in terms of saleyard throughput but lowere slaughter numbers. Total east coast lamb slaughter for the week ending the 25th of November was 336,879 head which was 6% lower than the week prior and sheep slaughterwas down 5%. For lamb slaughter this was close to the levels of the same week in 2021, but remains 5% below the five year seasonal average.
National sheep and lamb yardings for last week reached 303,001 head which was a 42% lift on the week prior. Lamb yardings are still trailing below the levels of this time last year, with last weeks volumes in the east 10% lower. The early throughput reports from this week indicates that a jump in yardings was a dominant factor in the weaker market. At the time of writing, national combined sheep and lamb throughput is reported at 346,577, a 14% lift on the week prior.
The week ahead….
As we reported earlier this week, the MLA/AWI sheep producers intention survey results suggests 10% more lambs were maked in the October survey compared to 2021. Nearly half the lambs on hand are set to be held over until the new year.
While more supply driven pressure is to come, plenty of feed means there will be opportunities.
In mid-2022 Mecardo looked at the international supply of sheep meat (albeit from a limited number of countries) showing how lower supply had positively correlated
A short week, and closed saleyards on Thursday has culminated in some relief on the supply front as combined lamb and sheep yardings nationally dropped
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Buyers take a backseat & prices topple
Prices for finished lambs at least had been holding relatively well in recent weeks but a flood of supply left demand in the doldrums. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator (ESLTI) dropped 70¢ (9%) over the week to end at 689¢/kg cwt. We have seen trade lamb prices lower this season, in August when the FMD fears sent the market to 634¢, but given the big volumes still to come we might not have reached the low yet. The ESTLI is currently 115¢ lower than four weeks ago.
The sentiment was very different in the West, with trade lambs improving 26¢ over the week to end at 602¢. This is 93¢ higher than four weeks ago.
For the heavy lamb market there has been a lot of volatility over the last month and this week we saw the National Indicator drop 73¢/kg cwt to sit at 743¢/kg cwt, 77¢ lower than four weeks ago. Restocker lamb prices have been on a donward trend since early November and this continues this week with the National Indicator dropping another 57¢ to end at 646¢/kg cwt. A large lift in young lamb supply was a driver in this movement.
Mutton was one of the worst performers in this weeks market. The National Mutton Indicator dropped 132¢ over the week to settle at 325¢. This was a 29% fall in just a single week and mutton is down by about 182¢ or 36% in the last four weeks.
If we turn back to last week we saw a large jump in supply in terms of saleyard throughput but lowere slaughter numbers. Total east coast lamb slaughter for the week ending the 25th of November was 336,879 head which was 6% lower than the week prior and sheep slaughterwas down 5%. For lamb slaughter this was close to the levels of the same week in 2021, but remains 5% below the five year seasonal average.
National sheep and lamb yardings for last week reached 303,001 head which was a 42% lift on the week prior. Lamb yardings are still trailing below the levels of this time last year, with last weeks volumes in the east 10% lower. The early throughput reports from this week indicates that a jump in yardings was a dominant factor in the weaker market. At the time of writing, national combined sheep and lamb throughput is reported at 346,577, a 14% lift on the week prior.
The week ahead….
As we reported earlier this week, the MLA/AWI sheep producers intention survey results suggests 10% more lambs were maked in the October survey compared to 2021. Nearly half the lambs on hand are set to be held over until the new year.
While more supply driven pressure is to come, plenty of feed means there will be opportunities.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Photo Credit: Debbie Christinelli “Golden Hour”
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
How do the size of yardings move prices in Wagga
Talk to any farmer or local agent, and they will tell you that local supply has an impact on local prices. Many a grower will
International sheep meat supply and lamb prices
In mid-2022 Mecardo looked at the international supply of sheep meat (albeit from a limited number of countries) showing how lower supply had positively correlated
44% drop in supply springs market into action
A short week, and closed saleyards on Thursday has culminated in some relief on the supply front as combined lamb and sheep yardings nationally dropped
Winter is coming, where will lamb land?
While many are focussed on the Anzac Day market of a good autumn break, and whether more rain – or any rain at all for
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.