The cattle market held steady this week, with very little movement in any of the main indicators. While we won’t see the impact of the short week on slaughter until next week’s figures, yardings only dipped by 2%, or less than 1000 head.
Last week’s slaughter was up 24% year-on-year, but still just shy of the five-year average. That said, it was the second-largest weekly slaughter volume for the year-to-date, sitting just behind the week prior. This indicates supply is not dropping off in any way, especially as the long-term trend sees weekly slaughter increase in the coming weeks.
So, what about demand? Rabobank’s latest agribusiness outlook reminded us that cattle prices also drifted lower last winter through until August when producers gained enough confidence in the seasonal conditions to boost the market. They suggest all the El Nino chat is one thing putting downward pressure on cattle prices.
If we look at the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator this week (EYCI), it is in fact restockers that have driven the price up by about 5ȼ/kg to 568ȼ/kg. With no Wagga Wagga market because of the King’s Birthday holiday, Queensland yards Roma (store) and Dalby were the biggest contributors to the EYCI. Which is no doubt why restockers paid a 13ȼ/kg premium over feeders and processors for EYCI-eligible cattle this week.
The Feeder Steer price dropped to just shy of 306ȼ/kg live weight. According to Argus Meat and Livestock, the northern feeder price was further depressed by some October processor grid prices being released and being 10ȼ/kg lower than September prices, to 630ȼ/kg for 100-day grainfed cattle.
Furthermore, they don’t think processor prices will head in the other direction anytime soon, with plenty of supply availability. They also mention plenty of producers keen to go direct to lotfeeders to bypass volatile markets, but feeders not wanting to book up to far ahead in case buy-in prices drop even lower.
The national cow price did dip slightly, down about 1% to 355ȼ/kg cwt. The other main female price that Meat and Livestock Australia has drawn attention to this week is the restocker yearling heifer, which traded at a record 30% discount to the same category of steer in quarter two of this year. At 232ȼ/kg lwt it is close to 100ȼ/kg below steers currently, and 310ȼ/kg below its year-ago value.
The week ahead….
“Ain’t nothing doing” (as they say) in the cattle market in the short term, with the market looking like it will remain at the status quo for the time being. Restockers aren’t jumping into the market at this time of year when they’ve already built numbers up and there’s plenty of chatter about a dry spring. Feeders and processors are doing their darndest to make back some of the extra cash they’ve dished out in recent times.
The cattle market gained momentum this week, as plenty of active buyers drove prices upward and allowed the market to recover some recently lost ground.
Most recent industry outlooks point to a steady-as-she-goes cattle market for the medium term, with strong ongoing export demand and high slaughter levels counteracting the
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.
Feeders feel price pinch
Last week’s slaughter was up 24% year-on-year, but still just shy of the five-year average. That said, it was the second-largest weekly slaughter volume for the year-to-date, sitting just behind the week prior. This indicates supply is not dropping off in any way, especially as the long-term trend sees weekly slaughter increase in the coming weeks.
So, what about demand? Rabobank’s latest agribusiness outlook reminded us that cattle prices also drifted lower last winter through until August when producers gained enough confidence in the seasonal conditions to boost the market. They suggest all the El Nino chat is one thing putting downward pressure on cattle prices.
If we look at the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator this week (EYCI), it is in fact restockers that have driven the price up by about 5ȼ/kg to 568ȼ/kg. With no Wagga Wagga market because of the King’s Birthday holiday, Queensland yards Roma (store) and Dalby were the biggest contributors to the EYCI. Which is no doubt why restockers paid a 13ȼ/kg premium over feeders and processors for EYCI-eligible cattle this week.
The Feeder Steer price dropped to just shy of 306ȼ/kg live weight. According to Argus Meat and Livestock, the northern feeder price was further depressed by some October processor grid prices being released and being 10ȼ/kg lower than September prices, to 630ȼ/kg for 100-day grainfed cattle.
Furthermore, they don’t think processor prices will head in the other direction anytime soon, with plenty of supply availability. They also mention plenty of producers keen to go direct to lotfeeders to bypass volatile markets, but feeders not wanting to book up to far ahead in case buy-in prices drop even lower.
The national cow price did dip slightly, down about 1% to 355ȼ/kg cwt. The other main female price that Meat and Livestock Australia has drawn attention to this week is the restocker yearling heifer, which traded at a record 30% discount to the same category of steer in quarter two of this year. At 232ȼ/kg lwt it is close to 100ȼ/kg below steers currently, and 310ȼ/kg below its year-ago value.
The week ahead….
“Ain’t nothing doing” (as they say) in the cattle market in the short term, with the market looking like it will remain at the status quo for the time being. Restockers aren’t jumping into the market at this time of year when they’ve already built numbers up and there’s plenty of chatter about a dry spring. Feeders and processors are doing their darndest to make back some of the extra cash they’ve dished out in recent times.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Cattle market pitches up
The cattle market gained momentum this week, as plenty of active buyers drove prices upward and allowed the market to recover some recently lost ground.
Restockers to set pace after Autumn break
Most recent industry outlooks point to a steady-as-she-goes cattle market for the medium term, with strong ongoing export demand and high slaughter levels counteracting the
Export buyers out of office
With the nation stopping yesterday to commemorate ANZAC Day, Thursday livestock sales did not take place. As a result, this week saw a decrease in
Cattle price volatility lower as supply and demand find balance
Cattle market volatility has waned recently. The wild swings of 2023 saw prices move up to 70% across the course of two months. Thus far
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.