Rain was exactly what the market needed and despite the glaring El Nino signs, a front moving across the southeast delivered the good stuff. While the headwinds facing the market remain, we will welcome any price bounce with open arms.
Figure 1 shows where the rain fell, and although it could be considered too much in parts of Victoria, NSW saw fairly widespread falls in areas that were desperate for a drink. Producers held off sending stock to yards this week in anticipation of the event, particularly in NSW, with throughput declining significantly week on week. The preliminary yardings reports are showing total lamb yardings of around 120K head and sheep yardings at 48k head currently, contrasting last week’s 202k lambs and 66k sheep.
In response to the tighter supply and a bit more confidence saleyard prices jumped. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator gained 52¢ or 12% over the week, to 483¢/kg cwt taking the indicator back to levels of early August. Saleyard reports from Wagga noted bidding was ignited for anything carrying weight. Heavy lambs also improved, up 41¢ on the week to 495¢/kg cwt. It was lighter lambs that saw the biggest gain, mind you they had also experienced the biggest falls. Light lambs jumped 114¢ or 42% to settle at 385¢/kg cwt and Merino lambs lifted 118¢/kg cwt or 45% to 352¢/kg cwt. The biggest price improvements were in NSW, where light & Merino lambs are now priced back at levels of mid to late July.
Restocker lamb prices also jumped in NSW, up 130¢ on the week to 379¢, which moved the price more in line with Victoria where a more tepid 41¢ gain saw restocker lambs at 378¢. SA largely missed out on the rain event and prices there continued lower with restocker lambs down 71¢ on the week to 214¢/kg cwt.
Mutton prices also improved along with the broader lamb market. The National Mutton Indicator jumped 64¢ or 60% over the week to end at 171¢/kg cwt.
Next week
The market is likely to bounce around over the next few weeks before it rebalances. Supply will continue to ramp up, but there will likely be some producers now with more confidence in feed supply that decide to hold onto lambs longer.
A short week, and closed saleyards on Thursday has culminated in some relief on the supply front as combined lamb and sheep yardings nationally dropped
Despite a decrease in yardings week on week, the tightening of supply was not enough to support prices. Middle East airspace closures impacted demand at
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Nothing quite like an October rain
Figure 1 shows where the rain fell, and although it could be considered too much in parts of Victoria, NSW saw fairly widespread falls in areas that were desperate for a drink. Producers held off sending stock to yards this week in anticipation of the event, particularly in NSW, with throughput declining significantly week on week. The preliminary yardings reports are showing total lamb yardings of around 120K head and sheep yardings at 48k head currently, contrasting last week’s 202k lambs and 66k sheep.
In response to the tighter supply and a bit more confidence saleyard prices jumped. The Eastern States Trade Lamb Indicator gained 52¢ or 12% over the week, to 483¢/kg cwt taking the indicator back to levels of early August. Saleyard reports from Wagga noted bidding was ignited for anything carrying weight. Heavy lambs also improved, up 41¢ on the week to 495¢/kg cwt. It was lighter lambs that saw the biggest gain, mind you they had also experienced the biggest falls. Light lambs jumped 114¢ or 42% to settle at 385¢/kg cwt and Merino lambs lifted 118¢/kg cwt or 45% to 352¢/kg cwt. The biggest price improvements were in NSW, where light & Merino lambs are now priced back at levels of mid to late July.
Restocker lamb prices also jumped in NSW, up 130¢ on the week to 379¢, which moved the price more in line with Victoria where a more tepid 41¢ gain saw restocker lambs at 378¢. SA largely missed out on the rain event and prices there continued lower with restocker lambs down 71¢ on the week to 214¢/kg cwt.
Mutton prices also improved along with the broader lamb market. The National Mutton Indicator jumped 64¢ or 60% over the week to end at 171¢/kg cwt.
Next week
The market is likely to bounce around over the next few weeks before it rebalances. Supply will continue to ramp up, but there will likely be some producers now with more confidence in feed supply that decide to hold onto lambs longer.
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Data sources: MLA, BOM, Mecardo
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.