The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) backtracked another 13¢ (2%) this week, coming to rest at 669¢/kg cwt. Prices for young cattle haven’t been this low in nominal terms for more than three years, and we are now operating at a level 40% below where we were a year ago. In the depths of the 2019 east coast drought, prices reached well below the 500¢/kg mark before rocketing quickly to around current levels in the space of a couple of months.
Currently, the supply of young cattle across the east coast is very strong, after being subdued by the rain in Queensland, the offering at Roma exploded sixfold to 6,800 head, returning it to its rightful place as the index’s top contributor for the week. Roma steers traded at 790¢/kg cwt. Dalby, Gunnedah, and Tamworth were next in line, making up 27% of the index between them, with steers making 726¢/kg, 718¢/kg, and 716¢/kg respectively.
Overall, east coast yardings snapped back quickly, pegging a 47% week-on-week increase as Queensland offerings made a welcome return to the market. Victoria was also back in action after the public holiday interruptions with a 70% week-on-week surge in yardings.
The national indicators also suffered under the onslaught of increased supply, with red ink across the board without exception. The week’s wooden spoon went to processor cows, where the index fell back 9¢ (3%) to close the week at 251¢/kg lwt. Feeder steer prices were also soft, retreating 8¢ (2%) to finish at 251¢/kg lwt.
The latest slaughter stats for the week ending 17th March 2023 indicated a slight 4% contraction from the week prior. It appears that Queensland operations were relatively unaffected by the rains, but Victorian numbers fell back by 24%, probably on account of the disruption of the public holiday. At 106K head, throughput remains 22% above 2022 levels, with processors taking advantage of improved labour availability and reduced cattle prices.
The US frozen cow 90CL price pushed up another 15¢ (2%) to reach 845¢/kg. Driven from a native 7¢(3%) increase in the US price to US256¢/lb, offset by a 1% strengthening in the Aussie dollar against the greenback. Imported lean prices in the US were pushed higher, as the US domestic market comes to terms with diminishing supply. US cow slaughter continues to track lower, now at 8% below 2022 levels. Macroeconomic conditions in the US appear to have deteriorated because of the risks flowing from the recent banking crisis. As Steiner points out in this week’s latest report, negative changes in consumer spending tend to kick in after recessions have taken place, as the impact of increased unemployment flows through the economy. Given the US employment situation is still solid, a downturn in US beef demand is more of a forward risk, so the US beef outlook remains rosy for now.
Rain delay over as supply bounces back
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) backtracked another 13¢ (2%) this week, coming to rest at 669¢/kg cwt. Prices for young cattle haven’t been this low in nominal terms for more than three years, and we are now operating at a level 40% below where we were a year ago. In the depths of the 2019 east coast drought, prices reached well below the 500¢/kg mark before rocketing quickly to around current levels in the space of a couple of months.
Currently, the supply of young cattle across the east coast is very strong, after being subdued by the rain in Queensland, the offering at Roma exploded sixfold to 6,800 head, returning it to its rightful place as the index’s top contributor for the week. Roma steers traded at 790¢/kg cwt. Dalby, Gunnedah, and Tamworth were next in line, making up 27% of the index between them, with steers making 726¢/kg, 718¢/kg, and 716¢/kg respectively.
Overall, east coast yardings snapped back quickly, pegging a 47% week-on-week increase as Queensland offerings made a welcome return to the market. Victoria was also back in action after the public holiday interruptions with a 70% week-on-week surge in yardings.
The national indicators also suffered under the onslaught of increased supply, with red ink across the board without exception. The week’s wooden spoon went to processor cows, where the index fell back 9¢ (3%) to close the week at 251¢/kg lwt. Feeder steer prices were also soft, retreating 8¢ (2%) to finish at 251¢/kg lwt.
The latest slaughter stats for the week ending 17th March 2023 indicated a slight 4% contraction from the week prior. It appears that Queensland operations were relatively unaffected by the rains, but Victorian numbers fell back by 24%, probably on account of the disruption of the public holiday. At 106K head, throughput remains 22% above 2022 levels, with processors taking advantage of improved labour availability and reduced cattle prices.
The US frozen cow 90CL price pushed up another 15¢ (2%) to reach 845¢/kg. Driven from a native 7¢(3%) increase in the US price to US256¢/lb, offset by a 1% strengthening in the Aussie dollar against the greenback. Imported lean prices in the US were pushed higher, as the US domestic market comes to terms with diminishing supply. US cow slaughter continues to track lower, now at 8% below 2022 levels. Macroeconomic conditions in the US appear to have deteriorated because of the risks flowing from the recent banking crisis. As Steiner points out in this week’s latest report, negative changes in consumer spending tend to kick in after recessions have taken place, as the impact of increased unemployment flows through the economy. Given the US employment situation is still solid, a downturn in US beef demand is more of a forward risk, so the US beef outlook remains rosy for now.
The week ahead….
Historically, towards the end of March is when we start to see a decline in the supply of cattle at the saleyards, which could help ease the current downward pressure on prices.
We should also hear some news about whether China will lift its ban on Brazilian beef soon. Other countries imposing a ban such as Thailand, Iran, Russia, and Jordan are likely to follow China’s lead.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Steiner, Argus, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Weaners a little weaker but sellers can’t complain
The southern weaner sales are almost over, and despite opening a little weaker than December, the results have positive compared to last year and compared
It’s never a quiet one
Despite saleyards and processors being shut for the holidays, the market continues to be thrown curveballs. The announcement of quota limits for beef imports into
China springs new year trade barrier
We are less than two weeks into 2026, but already the beef industry has faced a multitude of events which will continue to impact markets
Quiet week after a monumental year
As the markets wrap up on the run to Christmas there was little movement on the price front. With all saleyard indicators currently sitting well
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.