It is fair to say that recent moves in the wheat market have most analysts scratching their heads. While the downtrend has been in place for some time, the fundamentals really don’t support the move.
Global wheat stocks to use and prices are lower than a year ago, carryover is also lower. Respected Russian analyst Andrey Sizov (SovEcon) succinctly Tweeted this week “Another day…another red candle in #wheat. If the downtrend holds, $6.80 looks like the next target (while fundamentally we should be close to $8)”.
Yet wheat remains in a death spiral and the short (sold) positions in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) continue to grow. The funds (speculative fund managers) are firmly in control and money flow is dictating price action. CBOT (and other exchanges) are no longer operating as they were intended. However, the wheat market is looking seriously oversold and is in a perilous position. It will need only a spark to spook the commercials, and the resultant run for cover could be quite spectacular. For now, the December wheat contract is now at its lowest point in 18 months, and it’s a testament to plentiful supplies and stiff competition out of Russia.
The corn and bean markets had been supported by concerns over the Argentinian crop. This week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report saw the USDA significantly cut production but it wasn’t enough to really change sentiment. Not to be outdone, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) cut its production estimate for soybeans to 29 mmt from 33.5 mmt previously. Corn was reduced to 37.5mmt from 41mmt with an expectation that further cuts are possible.
The giant gorilla that is the huge Brazilian crop is starting to weigh on the market. Harvest is well advanced and Brazil will be the world’s dominant player in soybean exports. US export demand is poor and China isn’t showing a rapid rebound from its COVID-induced economic woes.
After a dry winter, France and much of western Europe look to get a decent shot of rain in the coming week. It is a start, but the market (and farmers) will be looking for a lot more to make up for the deficit.
Next week
Short term, it appears that we are going to see continued weakness in the wheat market. We are approaching the business end of the Northern Hemisphere crop year. There will be plenty of speculation regarding US Hard Red Winter (HRW) and the Canadian Plains not to mention the gap being left by reduced Ukrainian production and a return to average (potentially El Niño?) conditions for Australia. We’d expect this to have more impact on new season prices than old crop.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its December Crop Report last week, and it came with some serious bumping
Another ‘geopolitic’ type of week, with little fundamental news but lots of political intrigue to keep the market ticking over. News that the US President
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Wheat out of whack with reality
Global wheat stocks to use and prices are lower than a year ago, carryover is also lower. Respected Russian analyst Andrey Sizov (SovEcon) succinctly Tweeted this week “Another day…another red candle in #wheat. If the downtrend holds, $6.80 looks like the next target (while fundamentally we should be close to $8)”.
Yet wheat remains in a death spiral and the short (sold) positions in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) continue to grow. The funds (speculative fund managers) are firmly in control and money flow is dictating price action. CBOT (and other exchanges) are no longer operating as they were intended. However, the wheat market is looking seriously oversold and is in a perilous position. It will need only a spark to spook the commercials, and the resultant run for cover could be quite spectacular. For now, the December wheat contract is now at its lowest point in 18 months, and it’s a testament to plentiful supplies and stiff competition out of Russia.
The corn and bean markets had been supported by concerns over the Argentinian crop. This week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report saw the USDA significantly cut production but it wasn’t enough to really change sentiment. Not to be outdone, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) cut its production estimate for soybeans to 29 mmt from 33.5 mmt previously. Corn was reduced to 37.5mmt from 41mmt with an expectation that further cuts are possible.
The giant gorilla that is the huge Brazilian crop is starting to weigh on the market. Harvest is well advanced and Brazil will be the world’s dominant player in soybean exports. US export demand is poor and China isn’t showing a rapid rebound from its COVID-induced economic woes.
After a dry winter, France and much of western Europe look to get a decent shot of rain in the coming week. It is a start, but the market (and farmers) will be looking for a lot more to make up for the deficit.
Next week
Short term, it appears that we are going to see continued weakness in the wheat market. We are approaching the business end of the Northern Hemisphere crop year. There will be plenty of speculation regarding US Hard Red Winter (HRW) and the Canadian Plains not to mention the gap being left by reduced Ukrainian production and a return to average (potentially El Niño?) conditions for Australia. We’d expect this to have more impact on new season prices than old crop.
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Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Reuters, USDA, SovEcon, Next Level Grain Marketing, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
A good WA spring driving crop production
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) released its December Crop Report last week, and it came with some serious bumping
Price pressure as production picks up
A week or so ago, I wrote how ‘big crops get bigger’. True to form, the trend continues. This week, StatsCan updated their production data
A slow harvest and drifting prices
Summer is here, yet it has been hard to find spring heat in the south, let alone summer. Cool, wet conditions continue to delay harvest
Thanksgiving caps a flat week
Another ‘geopolitic’ type of week, with little fundamental news but lots of political intrigue to keep the market ticking over. News that the US President
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.