Politics back in the driver’s seat
It never ceases to amaze how quickly politics can turn market sentiment. This week, the slumbering trade dispute between the US and China flared back to life after Beijing announced new export restrictions on rare earths and retaliatory port fees on US-flagged vessels. What had been months of tentative improvement in relations quickly unravelled in […]
Wheat’s false start as Russian cuts spark
There was a brief spark in the wheat market overnight after Russia’s Deputy Agriculture Minister revealed that the country’s sown wheat area for the 2026 season is expected to fall 6.2% to 28.2 million hectares. Prices below the cost of production in many regions are clearly starting to bite. In what should have been a […]
Stocks, shutdowns, and surprises
Another week gone, another week dictated by happenings in the US. This week, the USDA published its September US stocks report. Both corn and wheat stocks were raised above pre-report estimates, which saw prices tumble. The increase is attributed to higher yields, especially in the winter wheat classes. Corn carryout is now tipped to be […]
Wheat prices stabilise as import demand emerges
Wheat markets traded a mixed but slightly firmer tone this week. As of 26 September, CBOT wheat closed around US 527c/bu, up on the day. Over the past month, the contract has managed a modest 2.5% gain, though prices remain more than 11% below year-ago levels, underscoring how far the market has retreated from last […]
When bad news lifts the market
The USDA’s September report landed late last week and, as is often the case, raised more questions than answers. This release is closely watched, given it incorporates on-the-ground field observations to “ground truth” satellite and model data. Corn and soybean yields were revised lower, which the market had largely anticipated. The real surprise came in […]
Wheat Drifts Sideways as USDA Looms
Chicago wheat (CBOT) has bounced around on either side of unchanged this week as market participants seem unsure about tonight’s USDA report. This report is thought to be a price mover as the USDA will provide some ground-truthed yield data on corn and soybeans, but it will also look to revise global wheat production. Southern […]
Beijing meeting underscores shifting global trade power
After making small, incremental steps forward in the past couple of weeks, the wheat market capitulated under the weight of supply numbers and poor demand signals. Corn and beans also felt the weight of stalled trade talks between China and the US, dragging the entire ag commodity complex with them. As far as the Northern […]
Wheat stuck in neutral as Global Trade begins to shift
Wheat prices have continued to trend sideways over the past week. A solid export program out of the US and slow Russian exports have enabled FOB and flat cash prices to remain steady. The US is the cheapest origin at the moment and is seizing much of the importer interest. Russian FOB values remain elevated […]
Importers starting to line up
In a rare turn of events, the wheat market closed higher this week, breaking a multi-month downtrend. Still, one week does not make a trend. On a broader scale, global wheat prices continue to weaken. As of August 22, wheat was trading around US$5.07 per bushel, down roughly 6 to 7% over the past month, […]
Politics, the USDA, and a big wet blanket
If you ever needed proof that politics can steer commodity markets, this week offered two textbook examples. First, President Trump posted on Truth Social that “China would likely quadruple its U.S. soybean imports.” The comment, more hopeful than factual, was enough to send the soybean market sharply higher. The very next day, China slapped a […]
Tariffs, trade and fundamentals collide
This week’s ag commodity news remains dominated by familiar themes, soft prices, ongoing Northern Hemisphere harvest and improving US crop conditions, all underpinned by lacklustre demand. However, tariffs and trade dynamics are once again shaking up the narrative, creat-ing fresh uncertainty for global markets. The August 1st deadline for new trade agreements has passed. While […]
Wheat is riding seasonal lows
Wheat prices have remained under pressure for the week as harvest progress and improving weather continues to build expectations of an oversupply of wheat. The fall in wheat coincided with falls in corn and soybeans as favourable weather in the US Midwest fuels optimism of bumper yields. Reuters analysts pointed out improved crop conditions in […]