Short covering heralds a shift
I’ll admit to being a bit surprised to see the wheat market continue to rally over the past week. The return to work after the Chinese Lunar New Year and little in the way of fundamental issues to drive the market, I presumed it would be a quiet week. However, money doesn’t sleep and the […]
Will these ripples build into a wave?
With a truncated trading week due to the US Presidents Day public holiday, combined with much of Asia closed for Lunar New Year celebrations, you would normally expect market activity to be subdued. Instead, volatility crept back in as an early weather narrative and rising geopolitical tension gave traders something to engage with. Heading into […]
Technical twist drives wheat
Another mostly quiet week in the wheat pits. The Feb USDA and WASDE report barely rated a mention, other than raising US ending stocks and holding carryout at previous levels. Globally wheat production increased a fraction as did overall carryout. By and large, a really benign report for wheat. The market did, however, sit up […]
Macro take the wheel
This weeks commentary is more about macro-economics and geopolitics that anything directly wheat oriented. Having climbed to over 0.70USc, the AUD has tipped over in the past couple of trading sessions, to be around 0.695USc and a slight improvement for our cash prices. The change seems to be centred around Trumps new Fed Chair nominee, […]
Weather gives way to Politics
It has felt like a relatively quiet week in global markets — not entirely surprising given the time of year, or perhaps because other headlines have been stealing the limelight. The Arctic blast that swept into the US over the weekend certainly lived up to expectations, delivering a powerful winter storm. Heavy snowfall blanketed much […]
Interesting Times
“May you live in interesting times” is a phrase often attributed to a 19th-century House of Commons speech. While it reads like a vague blessing, it’s more a tongue-in-cheek curse, wishing the recipient anything but calm and stability. Judging by the political upheaval of late, we’re certainly living in “interesting times”… The biggest story this […]
New Year, old themes
2026 has opened with a familiar driver dominating the headlines: geopolitics. Forget Russia, Venezuela or Greenland, developments in Iran arguably carry far greater implications for commodity markets. Iran is not only a significant producer of oil and fertilisers, but also a major wheat importer. The protests currently unfolding are not without precedent. However, renewed threats […]
Argy production to push price bar lower?
With little fresh direction, wheat prices have continued to follow the path of least resistance, grinding lower. After almost four years of entrenched conflict in Ukraine, renewed talk of a potential peace deal has begun to circulate. True to form, markets have reacted by stripping out some risk premiums; particularly in wheat and crude oil […]
Price pressure as production picks up
A week or so ago, I wrote how ‘big crops get bigger’. True to form, the trend continues. This week, StatsCan updated their production data and revealed what the trade and the farmer all knew — the 2025 crop was a record. StatsCan reported a record canola crop of 21.8mmt, 2.56mmt more than last year’s […]
Thanksgiving caps a flat week
Another ‘geopolitic’ type of week, with little fundamental news but lots of political intrigue to keep the market ticking over. News that the US President had issued a 28-point peace plan to finally end the dispute in Ukraine was met with wheat prices initially tumbling on optimism that an end was nigh. The fall stalled […]
Big crops tend to get bigger
Any hope that wheat bulls had of building a springboard to bounce higher was dashed by last week’s USDA report. The report, including the WASDE global S and D, 43 days in the making, print-ed higher production and higher carryout stocks. Most relevant to us were the wheat numbers. Improved production estimates in Argentina, Russia, […]
Markets on the sidelines ahead of USDA report
The market is holding its breath as it eagerly awaits the release of the first USDA report in over 40 days. The US Government shutdown has held up key stocks and trade data, leaving many in the trade relatively blind. Soybeans are the commodity that is being closely watched. It is caught between underlying yield […]