Markets have had a rough week. Concerns about financial instability around the globe became increasingly front of mind with the forced merger of Credit Suisse and UBS, and the collapse of two US banks. Add to that, the renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative and a big harvest in Brazil has added to price weakness in commodity markets.
Once again the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been given the go-ahead, allowing for the continued safe export of Ukrainian grain for at least the next 60 days. This is only half of the previous extension length mind you, and Russia has stated that further extensions would depend on the removal of all sanctions related to agricultural enterprises. It is important to note that there are no sanctions directly applied to Russian ag exports but there are barriers regarding finance, insurance, and agricultural imports (ie farm machinery and spare parts).
The 60-day timeline makes for an interesting juncture. It means that the end of the agreement will fall right at the start of the Ukrainian winter harvest. The world’s buyers will be marking this on their calendars as it often presents an opportunity to purchase cheaper grain and to source grain from closer origins as the northern hemisphere harvest gets underway.
We mentioned last week that the huge Brazilian crop is starting to weigh on the market. Dry conditions in central and eastern Brazil should allow these regions to catch up with delayed soybean harvests and safrinha corn planting. Furthermore, good weather conditions for safrinha corn planting and production are expected in Mato Grosso through the end of march. Argentina is experiencing its worst soybean crop in nearly 25 years due to severe drought and other localized extreme weather events. Large volumes of rain are on the near-term forecast in some regions which might stabilise some crops but also creates a risk of local flooding.
The bearish news sent the December 2023 CBOT wheat futures contract sliding over the week, in AUD terms ending Thursday at $386/MT, 5% lower than the close of last week. Locally cash APW prices were also sent lower. Geelong APW ended Thursday at $379/MT, down $14 on the close of last week.
The downfall in canola prices has continued and doesn’t look as if it’s about to slow up. Geelong canola cash prices ended yesterday at $592. While Australian canola has been priced competitively globally, it is the nearby demand that has fallen off a cliff. Reduced crush demand in Europe has led to a surplus of supply. Demand simply will not pick up until that surplus has been eroded. A positive for the medium-term outlook is that global vegetable oil inventories are expected to decline into the second half of the year.
The week ahead….
The BOM 8-day rainfall is showing a 25% chance or 15-50mm for parts of WA, NSW, and Vic which may have added to the weakness in price this week. If you are looking for bullish news though, we could point to a return of El Niño impacting Australian production. A later seeding rain in Australia could see the intended area shrink if the opening pushes out beyond May.
Grain and oilseed markets are showing some good old-fashioned spring (in the northern hemisphere) volatility. We know that springtime dryness can grow into real production
Another week, another very mixed result. Last week, Middle Eastern politics drew the market’s attention, this week it’s all about the weather. Russia looked to
The worm seems to have turned somewhat in the grain and oilseed complex. While there is some short-term support coming from yet more geopolitical unrest,
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Banks, boats & Brazil drive a slump
Once again the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been given the go-ahead, allowing for the continued safe export of Ukrainian grain for at least the next 60 days. This is only half of the previous extension length mind you, and Russia has stated that further extensions would depend on the removal of all sanctions related to agricultural enterprises. It is important to note that there are no sanctions directly applied to Russian ag exports but there are barriers regarding finance, insurance, and agricultural imports (ie farm machinery and spare parts).
The 60-day timeline makes for an interesting juncture. It means that the end of the agreement will fall right at the start of the Ukrainian winter harvest. The world’s buyers will be marking this on their calendars as it often presents an opportunity to purchase cheaper grain and to source grain from closer origins as the northern hemisphere harvest gets underway.
We mentioned last week that the huge Brazilian crop is starting to weigh on the market. Dry conditions in central and eastern Brazil should allow these regions to catch up with delayed soybean harvests and safrinha corn planting. Furthermore, good weather conditions for safrinha corn planting and production are expected in Mato Grosso through the end of march. Argentina is experiencing its worst soybean crop in nearly 25 years due to severe drought and other localized extreme weather events. Large volumes of rain are on the near-term forecast in some regions which might stabilise some crops but also creates a risk of local flooding.
The bearish news sent the December 2023 CBOT wheat futures contract sliding over the week, in AUD terms ending Thursday at $386/MT, 5% lower than the close of last week. Locally cash APW prices were also sent lower. Geelong APW ended Thursday at $379/MT, down $14 on the close of last week.
The downfall in canola prices has continued and doesn’t look as if it’s about to slow up. Geelong canola cash prices ended yesterday at $592. While Australian canola has been priced competitively globally, it is the nearby demand that has fallen off a cliff. Reduced crush demand in Europe has led to a surplus of supply. Demand simply will not pick up until that surplus has been eroded. A positive for the medium-term outlook is that global vegetable oil inventories are expected to decline into the second half of the year.
The week ahead….
The BOM 8-day rainfall is showing a 25% chance or 15-50mm for parts of WA, NSW, and Vic which may have added to the weakness in price this week. If you are looking for bullish news though, we could point to a return of El Niño impacting Australian production. A later seeding rain in Australia could see the intended area shrink if the opening pushes out beyond May.
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Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: Reuters, Next Level Grain Marketing, Nutrien, Mecardo
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Have any questions or comments?
Getting good prices while avoiding volatility
Grain and oilseed markets are showing some good old-fashioned spring (in the northern hemisphere) volatility. We know that springtime dryness can grow into real production
Time to cut the BOM some slack
Another week, another very mixed result. Last week, Middle Eastern politics drew the market’s attention, this week it’s all about the weather. Russia looked to
Moving in the right direction
The worm seems to have turned somewhat in the grain and oilseed complex. While there is some short-term support coming from yet more geopolitical unrest,
Geopolitics and shorts weather
Amazing the difference a week can make. It all started last Friday morning, with continued escalations in the Middle East. The wheat market jumped 20
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.