In the eastern region, young cattle
prices remained steady throughout the week, holding at 628¢/kg cwt. Conversely,
in the west, young cattle prices improved by 20 cents, reaching 432 ¢/kg cwt.
These prices have remained within a trading range of 100 cents since October.
Processor cow prices displayed
little movement this week after steep declines the previous week. The national
indicator increased by just 2¢ compared to the previous week. Cows are currently sitting at 234¢/kg lwt, reflecting
a decline of 47¢ year-on-year. The 90CL US imported
beef market has shown some stabilisation after four weeks of rapid price
increases. While there is an anticipation of ample lean beef supply from
Australia and New Zealand in the short term, the US is expected to exhaust its
import quota that’s available from Brazil by the end of February, which will
limit its supply options.
The northern feeder market shifted in favour of feedlots
this week according to Argus reports. Some panic selling was noted however,
without the widespread concerns of feed availability, producers are likely to
hold on should the market get too cheap.
While slaughter rates remain below the peak levels
seen at the end of 2023, they are tracking above the five-year average. In the
week ending February 16th, cattle slaughter in the eastern states reached
121,740 head, marking a 36% increase compared to the previous year and a 9%
rise above the average. Year-to-date, slaughter rates have been 14% higher than
the same period last year and 4% above the five-year average. Typically,
slaughter rates tend to remain relatively steady during February and March.
Cattle market steers clear of further falls
Next week
The current forecast predicts upcoming weeks of wet weather for the northern region and much of Queensland, potentially causing disruptions in the flow of cattle from that area. It appears that kill-ready cattle prices are holding back the market at this point.
If we do see demand side improvement for beef in March or the wet conditions disrupt cattle supply further, there may be some upside to be found. Until then, the favourable conditions are expected to support a floor in the market and prevent significant downside risk.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Argus, Steiner, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Export support for Aussie cow price
Our favourite beef export price gauge has maintained its record run so far this year, driven by less lean beef supply in the US and
Buyers back bidding
Values lifted this week on the back of tighter supply, compounded by increased demand from buyers. Rain on the east coast, with more forecast for
January export lull impacts year-on-year gains.
After a record year of beef exports in 2024, volumes have kicked off 2025 in a similar vein. Beef exports are traditionally lower in January,
Grassroot gains slow the slide
The toll of supply continues to weigh on cattle values at auctions across the country. While conditions may be good in much of the northeast,
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
MEET THE TEAM
Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.