Increased slaughter all in the north

Aerial,View,Of,Outback,Cattle,Mustering,Featuring,Herd,Of,Livestock

On the back of the herd rebuild, cattle slaughter has started to rise to begin the year. Meat and Livestock Australia’s (MLA) weekly cattle slaughter data has hit a peak, but it’s Queensland that is driving the increase.

East coast cattle slaughter has started the year on a high.  At least it’s a high compared to the last two years. If we look back a bit further we can see it has a long way to go to get back to the levels we saw last time the herd was this size.

Figure 1 shows that east coast cattle slaughter sat at just over 105,000 head in the first two weeks of February.  Both these weeks were above any level we saw in 2022, and 2021 saw just one higher week.  So it is fair to say that compared to the last two years cattle slaughter is running hot.

There is a strong contrast between early 2023 slaughter levels in the north and south.  Figure 2 shows Queensland cattle slaughter is back at its five-year average.  In the week ending February 10, Queensland cattle slaughter was up 25% on the same week in 2022. 

NSW cattle slaughter is also higher, up 10% on last year.  The stronger calf numbers of the last two years are starting to work their way through northern markets.

Victoria and South Australia are smaller cattle slaughter states, but important nonetheless.  The southern states contributed 16.5% of east coast slaughter on average in 2022.  Both Victoria and SA have failed to see slaughter increase from rebuild levels just yet.

Figure 3 shows Victorian cattle slaughter continuing to track along at levels similar to the peaks of 2022.  We can see in figure 1 that Victoria is still at only 60% of the five-year average level and less than half the peaks of 2018-19.

Looking at MLA’s slaughter forecasts, current rates should be close to catering for the 6.62 million head expected to be slaughtered this year.  Annual slaughter is forecast up 7.3% on 2022, and current rates will end up seeing 15-20% processed for the year. 

What does it mean?

While MLA weekly slaughter figures suggest we are well on track to meet or beat 2023 slaughter forecasts, figure 1 shows processors are a long way off slaughter levels for a 28 million head herd. 

In 2017 the herd was at 28 million, and it was static into 2018.  Over those years weekly cattle slaughter was 130-140 thousand head per week.  All states will have to increase capacity to account for a herd this large if it eventuates.

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!

Print This Post

Key Points

  • East Coast cattle slaughter has started February at two-year highs.
  • Queensland is the leading contributor to higher slaughter rates, while southern states are similar to last year.
  • Cattle slaughter is on track to meet forecasts but will have to increase to account for a larger herd.

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Click on figure to expand

Data sources: MLA, Mecardo

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!
Murray grey cattle and calves in green paddock
Cattle

A snapshot of US beef

US tariffs and trade are constantly in the news, and beef being one of the most important commodities Australia exports to the US, there is

Read More »
Cattle

Moovement at the Yards

The return to operation for QLD saleyards, lack of rain on the forecast and the looming run of public holidays saw more cattle pass through

Read More »
Cattle mob in a green paddock
Cattle

Prices rally after rain

While there has been plenty thrown at Australian beef producers this week from outside the saleyard, the market has been on the rise, with all

Read More »

Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?

Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks

Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published

Commodity conversations podcast cover image, a illustration of a sheep standing on a cow's back with grain either side
Listen to the podcast

Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.

Photo of a farmer surrounded by Merino sheep in dusty yards
MEET THE TEAM

Our team of market analysts are recognised as leaders in Australian Ag market analysis, providing invaluable insights to help you navigate the ever-changing commodity landscape. 

Image of harvested grain pouring into a chaser bin
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE

We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.