Wheat has trended sideways for the week as the market looks for future direction. The general consensus is for continued pressure as Russia amps up its export program all the while their FOB values continue to fall.

The WASDE report out last week provided some distraction as the USDA both upped global wheat production (bearish) but also increased consumption (bullish). You could argue the report was bearish to neutral given US stocks were increased, but global stocks to use in the major exporters are at an 8-year low.


US wheat stocks were also given a wake-up call this week with China announcing further cancellations of US SRW wheat that was ‘purchased’ late last year. The total cancellation is running at 504kmt which will loosen up the SRW category considerably.


Australia is not exempt either. Thursday afternoon, news began circulating that China has cancelled or will postpone delivery of, at least 1mmt of Australian wheat. The wheat had been slated for export in the 1st quarter and has now either been cancelled outright or had the shipping slot pushed back into the 2nd and 3rd quarters.


The cancellations smell a lot like opportunity. World wheat prices have fallen back to 3.5 year lows or 14% since the start of 2024. I am not aware of too many other markets where you can simply walk away from a sale if the price moves against you (I am being very simplistic here) but I guess that is what market power can afford you.


These moves, perhaps not entirely unexpected, but disappointing nonetheless, will add to the lack of competitiveness of the rest of the world compared to Russia.  It feels like the wheat market has become a lot heavier suddenly.

Next week

The news of the cancellations will weigh on the wheat market in the short term. As I’ve said before though, falling prices will eventually flush out the buyers.

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!

Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

Data sources: Reuters, USDA, Next Level Grain Marketing, Mecardo

Make decisions with confidence- ask about our board packs, bespoke forecasting and risk management services

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!
Grains & Oilseeds

USDA offers up a vanilla slice

Last night, the market rolled back on itself after the USDA printed a very vanilla April WASDE (World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates) report. With

Read More »
Grains & Oilseeds

USDA uncovers a big hole

Last week, I finished off the weekly market comment by saying “ Unless the USDA surprises with a sharper-than-expected reduction in corn area, I suspect

Read More »
Canola field
Grains & Oilseeds

Long term crop forecasts

It is hard enough forecasting commodity production for the coming season, let alone any further. Regardless, The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and

Read More »

Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?

Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks

Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published

Commodity conversations podcast cover image, a illustration of a sheep standing on a cow's back with grain either side
Listen to the podcast

Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.

Photo of a farmer surrounded by Merino sheep in dusty yards
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock

In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making. 

Image of harvested grain pouring into a chaser bin

We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.