NASA may have decided to push back its moon mission this week, but this lamb market certainly has a rocket under it. Most indicators in the east have opened 2024 higher than the same time last year, driven by renewed processor demand, tighter supply, and plenty of rain.
Since the middle of December, lamb
prices and demand increased by $1 kilo from processors and now the opening
sales of January have seen another $1/kilo increase. This week the Eastern
States Trade Lamb Indicator finished at 782¢, which is 25% higher than the
average price of sales in the week ending 22nd December. The ESTLI is up 3%
YoY. The National Heavy Lamb Indicator also moved onwards and upwards, gaining 18%
since December 22nd to settle at 785¢/kg cwt.
Finished
lamb prices have also improved in WA but not to the same extent. The Western Australian
Trade Lamb Indicator is currently sitting at 561¢/kg cwt, a 20% lift on the
last full sale week of December 2023.
Rainfall in the eastern Australian sheep regions has persisted into
early January and continued to rejuvenate the restocker market. The National
Restocker Lamb Indicator this week ended at 681¢/kg cwt, up a significant 43%
on the last full sale week in December.
While mutton
prices have also increased this week, they haven’t seen the same rally as lamb.
The National Mutton Indicator ended this week at 261¢/kg cwt x which is still 30%
lower than the same time last year.
Tighter supply has also played its part
in the uplift in demand. The large selloff in December and the early exit of
light lambs to slaughter (read more) has
displaced finished lamb supply. While this season is presenting an overall
larger lamb crop compared to last year, the market response suggests that
processors are concerned about whether the finished lamb supply is there to
meet demand.
Next week
Much to the delight of the consumer, domestically, lamb on the supermarket shelves seems to be the cheapest it’s been in a long while. With the MLA Australia Day lamb campaign up and running, we’re expecting the boost in demand to flow through to a competitive market in the weeks ahead.
A short week, and closed saleyards on Thursday has culminated in some relief on the supply front as combined lamb and sheep yardings nationally dropped
Despite a decrease in yardings week on week, the tightening of supply was not enough to support prices. Middle East airspace closures impacted demand at
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In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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Straight to the moon
Next week
Much to the delight of the consumer, domestically, lamb on the supermarket shelves seems to be the cheapest it’s been in a long while. With the MLA Australia Day lamb campaign up and running, we’re expecting the boost in demand to flow through to a competitive market in the weeks ahead.
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Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
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Despite a decrease in yardings week on week, the tightening of supply was not enough to support prices. Middle East airspace closures impacted demand at
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Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
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We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.