Strong open to the market … then caution

Sheep running in a yard

This week the market bounded out of the blocks to record one of the biggest one day rises in the past 10 years, however exporters found their customers pulling back prices on the final day as they took stock of the strong rally. The big story is that by the end of the week significant rises for all MPG categories were noted across the board.

The Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) rallied strongly lifting 102 cents on top of last week’s 95¢ rise to close this week at 1219¢, another 9.1% lift for the week. This puts the EMI market rally since the beginning of September (at what appears to now be the low) at 37%, with the EMI gaining 361 cents over a 7-week period. The AUD was a tad lower at US$0.71 which saw the EMI in USD terms rising 62¢ for the week, closing at 863¢. Fremantle selling last saw some of the Tuesday gains given back, with a 60-cent retracement on Wednesday to leave the Western Market Indicator gaining 52¢ for the week and now sitting at 1219¢.

An increased offering to last week of 34,661 bales came forward. With a pass-in rate of 6.4% nationally, 32,483 bales were sold, 4,798 bales more than last week.

While there were widespread price rises, skirtings were at times extreme – with the Tuesday increases maintained to the end of the week. 18.0 micron & finer skirtings posted rises of 180 cents on Tuesday and were generally unchanged to the close except for Fremantle where the easing tone of late sales impacted skirtings also.

The crossbred section was animated with all types showing improvement. Fine crossbred was keenly sought rising across the selling week, the 29 MPG lifted 158 cents or 31% for the week.

Cardings were also quoted stronger at all selling centres, with an average across the board rally of 46 cents. Melbourne was strongest with a 62 cent or 8.2% increase in the Carding indicator on top of last week’s 7.6% rise.

This week on Mecardo, Andrew Woods noted that as Mecardo articles in the past have outlined, fibre prices are bound together through blending/substitution and fashion. There is a level of correlation between prices of different apparel fibres varies as they largely follow the same general cycles and trends.

Apparel fibre markets in China have picked up during the past month, with the greasy wool market following the general apparel fibre complex. Merino prices have outperformed the other fibres, but from a relatively lower base. Such a backdrop to the recent rises in merino prices suggests the market will hold most of the recent rises and additionally hints that the market has quite likely seen the worst of the COVID-19 downturn.

The week ahead….

AWEX noted that with Fremantle selling last, the market finished on a softer note. This will pose some questions for the level of new orders placed in the market for next week.

There are 44,004 bales listed for sale with all centres selling on both Tuesday & Wednesday; this is 10,000 more than last week and will test demand.

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!

Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

Click on graph to expand

Data sources: AWEX, Mecardo

Make decisions with confidence- ask about our board packs, bespoke forecasting and risk management services

Have any questions or comments?

We love to hear from you!
Wool

Optimism a plenty

As reported last week, it felt like the wool market was stirring on the back of positive Chinese economic stimulus. This week it posted the

Read More »
Wool

Argentine Wool Clip

With full season data available for the Argentine wool clip, it is time to review the wool production of this member of the Southern Hemisphere

Read More »

Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?

Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks

Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published

Commodity conversations podcast cover image, a illustration of a sheep standing on a cow's back with grain either side
Listen to the podcast

Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.

Photo of a farmer surrounded by Merino sheep in dusty yards
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock

In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making. 

Image of harvested grain pouring into a chaser bin
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE

We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.