The USDA recently held their global outlook forum, a two-day conference
to release forecasts for domestic US and global supply, demand, and prices.
Word on the street is that prices across the ag complex will remain under
pressure for 2024.
Among the raft of data, some of the key takeaways are:
·
US tipped for record yields and building stocks.
·
US corn stocks seen at their highest since
1987/88.
·
French wheat stocks highest in 5 years.
·
Russian wheat production upped to 93.6mmt (per
SovEcon).
·
The rise and rise of Brazil as an agricultural
powerhouse.
The price signals, especially for corn, are weak. Reuters reports
that US farmers will sow 91m acres in 2024, down from 94.6m last year. The lost
acres will be replaced by soybeans. This
is also reflected in Ukraine where the Agriculture Ministry reports a 7% swing
away from corn due to poor economic returns, but also a 6% decrease in sown
winter crops, mainly wheat and canola.
The main catalyst to turn this ship around will stem from
demand. Last night Egypt tendered for wheat. They were offered 1.8mmt and
bought 120kmt. The ‘winners’ of the tender were Romania and Ukraine who outbid
Russia for the business. The Ukrainian tender was super sharp, US$222 FOB
compared with the Russian offer of US$245. It shows that the market may still
have some work to do to find the floor.
In the short term, there is little to get really enthused
about. The price outlook estimates released by the USDA are just that. The only
practical thing they can be used for is the US Federal insurance crop scheme.
The crop hasn’t been planted yet, weather (La Niña?) and crop economics will
play a part in determining the final sown area.
Talk is cheap
Next week
Predicting price outlook is a bit like regularly tipping Powerball. Weather, politics, economic pressures, demand, and the odd black swan event will all combine to rock the boat over the next 10 months. All we can do is manage price risk when the opportunities arise.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: USDA, Reuters, SovEcon, Mecardo
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