The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) had a slight rise this week, gaining 10¢, bouncing off support at 550¢ and finishing Thursday at 566¢/kg cwt. A few years ago a 10¢ move in the EYCI was a bit of a big deal. These days it’s a marginal movement.
Figure 1 shows just how weak the EYCI is compared to recent years. The EYCI is less than half the value it was this time last year, and 400¢ off July 2021. It has been a depressing time for cattle traders.
The market didn’t really rally on the widespread rain this week. The Roma Store sale, the largest contributor to the EYCI, saw yarding drop by 63%, but buyers remained relatively cautious. For example, light restocker steers averaged a few cents cheaper than last week, at 362¢/kg lwt. Still, in cwt terms, it’s 100¢ above the EYCI itself.
Cattle slaughter has found a peak for now, with east coast values down marginally to the end of last week. Figure 2 shows slaughter is around the five-year average, but it is around the same level as 2020 and way off the peaks of 2019.
More capacity will have to open up to deal with the number of cattle which are likely to hit the supply chain in the coming year.
Could rain spell the bottom?
The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) had a slight rise this week, gaining 10¢, bouncing off support at 550¢ and finishing Thursday at 566¢/kg cwt. A few years ago a 10¢ move in the EYCI was a bit of a big deal. These days it’s a marginal movement.
Figure 1 shows just how weak the EYCI is compared to recent years. The EYCI is less than half the value it was this time last year, and 400¢ off July 2021. It has been a depressing time for cattle traders.
The market didn’t really rally on the widespread rain this week. The Roma Store sale, the largest contributor to the EYCI, saw yarding drop by 63%, but buyers remained relatively cautious. For example, light restocker steers averaged a few cents cheaper than last week, at 362¢/kg lwt. Still, in cwt terms, it’s 100¢ above the EYCI itself.
Cattle slaughter has found a peak for now, with east coast values down marginally to the end of last week. Figure 2 shows slaughter is around the five-year average, but it is around the same level as 2020 and way off the peaks of 2019.
More capacity will have to open up to deal with the number of cattle which are likely to hit the supply chain in the coming year.
Next week
When it rains we often see supply react first, as growers can see grass on the horizon. Restocker demand takes a little longer to react, as buyers wait until the feed is on hand. The recent downward trend will have plenty wary of jumping in, but it looks like we might be seeing the low.
Have any questions or comments?
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Click on graph to expand
Data sources: MLA, Mecardo
Categories
Have any questions or comments?
Onwards and upwards after price push?
Predicting what the cattle market has in store for 2024 is a much more positive experience than it would have been a month ago. But
Queensland buyers boost market further
While the old adage “It doesn’t rain grass” comes to mind this week, especially given we have now hit the first day of summer. However,
Herd tracking sideways despite slaughter growth
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) quarterly ‘Livestock Products’ report was released recently. The ABS numbers give the official numbers of cattle slaughtered and beef
Grass is greener?
Large amounts of rain across the East coast saw producers opting to hold onto cattle as feed concerns eased. This had a positive impact on
Want market insights delivered straight to your inbox?
Sign up to the mailing list to get regular updates to new analysis and market outlooks
Independent analysis and outlook for wool, livestock and grain markets delivered to you as it’s published
Listen to the podcast
Join the Mecardo team for the Commodity Conversations podcast, where we provide short weekly market recaps and longer conversations with guests to discuss the drivers and trends in livestock, grain and fibre markets.
Research: Analysis of the Australian sheep flock
In this report for LiveCorp and MLA, we analysed the historical trends in the demographics of the Australian sheep flock, examining domestic factors that influence farm-level enterprise decision making.
SERVICES AND CAPABILITIES STATEMENT BROCHURE
We don’t just bring you the most up to date market insights. Find out more about Mecardo’s services including risk management advisory, modelling, benchmarking, research & consultancy.